Global geopolitics is being hit with two conflicts that affect several countries. In Europe, the war in Ukraine caused by Russia's invasion, which turned two years old last February and remains stagnant. For its part, six months ago the confrontation between Israel and Gaza began and in which other countries such as Yemen or Iran have participated and that almost border on regional contention. In some way, the rest of the territories on the planet have been involved, although a South American nation could be the “great beneficiary” of the current and future map: Brazil.
According to forecasts, Brazil could be among the ten great world economic powers in 2050. The South American country would even overtake France and Russia at that time, and a few years later, in 2075, it would also be ahead of Germany and the United Kingdom. Besides, would consolidate itself as the “superpower” of South America. Estimates made by Goldman Sachs, in its Global Economy report.
The study, called “The road to 2075: size and opportunities of the capital market”, was published at the beginning of 2023. In it, the leading firm in the area of investment banking prepared a ranking made up of 104 countries until 2050 , and also 2075, in which it reflects the evolution of different nations in the next fifty years.
Brazil, with more power than France, Russia or Germany by 2075: these are the estimates of Goldman Sachs
The power of the planet would be in the hands of three recognized giants, such as China, United States and India, although it would be likely that New Delhi would overtake Washington in the second half of the century, while Beijing would always remain in first position. Brazil, for its part, would enter the top 10 before the middle of the 21st century, remaining in eighth position in both 2050 and 2075.
This is not the only striking thing about these forecasts, since in the second half of the century, France, Japan and Russia would disappear from a “top ten” in which Nigeria, Pakistan and Egypt would enterwhich would be the fifth, sixth and seventh world powers respectively.
For its part, Indonesia would be very close to China, India and the United States, while Germany and the United Kingdom would lose economic power as the years go by, remaining behind Brazil in 2075. It's more, They would be the only two Europeans among the ten main powers with the century almost over.
“They combine our GDP estimates with our long-term real exchange rate projections, to project the real value of the US dollar of major economies over time,” explains the investment bank. Likewise, they clarify that they are “estimates that inevitably involve a considerable degree of risk and uncertainty”, which could have “short-term errors.”
The growth of the BRICS in the oil and gas market: an expansion as an alternative to the G7
Among the main criteria they take into account are the political leadership, economic growth, military strength, alliances with other nations, and global influence which includes the ability to exercise authority and dominion over the rest of the territories.
These factors have been considered to include Brazil as a “superpower” that would be among the main global powers in the following years. A sign of notable growth, since in 2022, Goldman Sachs considered it the “eleventh power”, behind some such as Italy or Canada.
One of the main points to take into account regarding this growth has to do with Brazil belonging to the BRICS. This block, which at some point was formed by Brasilia along with Russia, India, China and South Africa, is today made up of other territories such as Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, a key expansion for setting international oil and gas prices.
BRICS vs G7: How the growing distance between the West and Russia drives countries like Brazil or Egypt
Michael Langham, emerging markets analyst at Abrdn, explained to BBC Mundo that the expansion of the number of members reinforces “the importance of the group as a forum for geopolitical debate, especially in the Middle East, where the majority of the members who have joined come from. recently and where China has tried to increase its influence.
In 2021, the GDP of the BRICS exceeded that of their G7 counterparts, formed by the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan and an organization that included what were the seven largest “advanced” economies in the world.
By 2024, The distance between both blocs has increased, due to the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel. According to experts explained to the American media, China aims to increase its power, and has even been strengthening its ties with Iran and Russia, who while viewing the bloc as an “anti-Western” group, are trying to distance the group from Western countries.
Beijing, likewise, would allocate many more resources to this bloc if it entered the game of Moscow and Tehran, something increasingly likely due to the continuous fights with the United States or the peculiar “chip war.” But the rest of the countries would also benefit, especially Brazil, which would take advantage of its status on the South American continent to increase its power.
Proof of this are the Goldman Sachs estimates that include Brasilia and Cairo in the “top ten” of 2075 along with China and India, and perhaps exclude Russia due to Western sanctions, which are forcing Moscow to “reconvert.” “. Per se, estimates that take power away from the G7 and give it to the BRICS. In this way, in 2075 there would be four countries from this second bloc among the main powers, compared to three from the first bloc. A change in the absolute World Order, since in 2022, the seven G7 countries were within the “top ten”, along with China, Russia and India, components of the BRICS.