The asteroid 2024 YR4 He worried the world for several weeks in the first months of this year. Detected by the Observatory ATLAS of Chile in December, it quickly entered the list Sentry of the POT And assumed that UN will activate for the first time the Planetary Security Protocolwhich caused the resources to study it. In mid -February, the risk of impact against Earth in 2032 was estimated at a 3.1 %, the highest detected in an asteroid to date. Subsequent observations decreased the risk until it was practically non -existent (0.001 %), but with the Moon The opposite has happened.
If at the beginning of this week the probability of impact against our satellite was estimated at 2 %, the latest observations They raise it up to 4 %. As for its diameter, which was believed to 60 meters After the data provided by the telescope James Webbnow it is calculated, with 95 % certainty, in Between 46 and 74 meters.
Zuri Gray and GRIGORI FEDORETS They are two researchers from the Helsinki University who have observed the asteroid since January 30, using The Nordic Optical Telescope (Not) of 2.5 meters on the Canary Island of La Palma. In a statement in which they indicate the probability of 4 % impact on the moon, they explain that ‘we have focused on the precise position and movement of the asteroid, and in analyzing its rotation, size and shape. This information is crucial to better predict its future career and, ultimately, refine your impact probability‘.
What effect would the collision of Asteroid YR4 with the moon have on earth?
Although the probability of impact on the moon remains small, It is not despicable. Last February, when the hit with the earth was at the top, that of doing it against the moon was 0.3 %.
Then, the Operations Engineer of Catalina Sky Survey of the University of Arizona, David Rankinhe told New Scientist that ‘There is the possibility that something of material that could hit the Earth be expelled, but I doubt that this represents an important threat.’. In a collision against the moon, 2024 YR4 could release more energy than 340 Hiroshima bombs. “It would probably be very visible from Earth,” he said, but does not believe that we can affect those who live in it.
Gareth Collinsprofessor of planetary sciences at Imperial College London, he told the same medium as ‘We would be quite safe on Earth’since any material expelled as a consequence of the collision probably I would be burned by resenting in the Earth’s atmosphere.
Another thing is space security. Gray affirms in the statement that ‘If the asteroid impact against the moon, the earth-lin system could be cloudy by particles detached from the moon and the asteroid, What could threaten infrastructure and human spatial operations‘.
Although YR4 is getting further from the earth, it will be possible to observe it for about one more month. The James Webb telescope will study it again before it is outside its reach and does not approach again until 2028with what we will have new data.