The earthquakes of significant magnitude recorded during the past months in Venezuela, Colombia, Philippines, Indonesia and other parts of the world do not represent an unusual increase in seismic activity, but they do serve as a reminder that Puerto Rico is undeniably exposed to a large-magnitude event, warned the geomorphologist José Molinelli Freytes in interview with The New Day.
The specialist and also professor explained that, although several devastating earthquakes have been recorded this year, the number of strong earthquakes remains within the parameters that are historically expected worldwide.
“When one examines in the last 100 years the average number of earthquakes that occur, based on the magnitude of each one, we should expect on average an earthquake of (magnitude) 8 or more to occur once a year, but greater than 7 we can expect about 14, 15 earthquakes to occur somewhere in the world,” Molinelli Freytes said.
The geomorphologist pointed out that the averages can vary considerably from one year to the next without implying a change in global seismic activity. “There may be one year where 20 occur and another where eight occur,” he mentioned.
In addition, he ruled out that factors such as climate change or other environmental phenomena cause an increase in seismic activity. “Climate change has nothing to do with tectonic processes, how the plates move, because the energy that moves the plates is the heat inside the Earth”said Molinelli Freytes.
1/16 | 📷 In pictures: devastation in Indonesia after a 7.7 magnitude earthquake. A powerful earthquake of magnitude 7.7, recorded on August 14, 2026, shook the sea off the coast of Indonesia. – BASARNAS
So far in 2026, a good part of the earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater have been recorded in areas associated with the Pacific Ring of Firea strip (horseshoe-shaped) that borders much of the Pacific Ocean and extends from the coasts of South and Central America to Mexico, the United States, Alaska, Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia and New Zealand. The region concentrates several boundaries between tectonic plates, making it one of the areas with the greatest seismic and volcanic activity on the planet.
Molinelli Freytes specified that the earthquake recorded in Colombia It is directly related to the tectonic dynamics of the Pacific, specifically with the interaction between the Nazca plate and the South American plate. He Venezuela earthquakeinstead, responded to the movement of the Caribbean plate and its interaction with the South American platehe stated.
However, the succession of strong earthquakes in different countries does not allow us to anticipate that Puerto Rico is close to experiencing one. What can be established is that the island, due to its location between tectonic plates, is exposed to this type of phenomena.
“Can Puerto Rico be impacted by strong earthquakes? Well, surely yes, we are on the margin between the Caribbean plate and the North American plate and, throughout geological history, throughout all the Antilles and the entire edge of the Caribbean basin, it is a seismically active area because there are the edges of the plates,” said Molinelli Freytes. “What you cannot predict is when, nor can you predict what magnitude,” he added.
The geomorphologist pointed out that between 98 to 99% of earthquakes occur at the edges of tectonic plates, where the seismic risk is concentrated.
“In the same way that someone who lives next to a river is exposed to flooding when the river overflows, those of us who live on the margins between tectonic plates are exposed to the danger of earthquakes,” he stressed.
In fact, Puerto Rico has in the past experienced earthquakes of greater magnitude than those recorded in several of the events that have made headlines this year. Molinelli Freytes particularly highlighted what happened on May 2, 1787. “There was an earthquake that affected the entire northern coast of Puerto Rico, broke the walls of Castillo del Morro and San Cristóbal and other structures and could have had a magnitude greater than 8, associated with the Puerto Rico Trench fault system.he indicated.
Given this background, the geomorphologist raised the need to evaluate the state of existing structures in Puerto Rico and determine which could be most vulnerable to a large earthquake.
“I have been insisting that We have to begin, with a sense of urgency, a process of identifying all the structures built, identifying the level of vulnerability, the cause of their vulnerability and what needs to be done to reinforce them so that they do not collapse.“, he maintained, emphasizing that attention should focus particularly on buildings built before 1987, the year in which, as he explained, building codes were radically modernized.
He also warned about the state of structures that have been exposed to the environmental conditions of the island for decades.
“There are buildings there that do not comply with the building codes now, they would not withstand a strong earthquake, they have been collecting saltpeter in front of the sea for decades and decades and they are old, and people live there, and people do not know how vulnerable their structure is,” he noted.
1 / 10 | In images: Cali wakes up among the ruins and the pain left by the earthquake. Dawn in Cali revealed collapsed roofs, broken walls, uninhabitable homes and streets where people are still searching for those trapped in the rubble. – EFE Agency
Molinelli Freytes stated that the evaluation should include not only the identification of vulnerable structures, but also determine what work requires to be reinforced and how much it would cost to do so. In his opinion, the government should develop strategies to facilitate the financing of these improvements, including the use of mitigation funds. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
The geomorphologist insisted that preparation should not depend on knowing when an earthquake will occur, since that date cannot be anticipated.
“We cannot predict it, but it is inevitable that at some point it will happen. What happens is that it can happen right now or 40 years from now, but it will happen. We know that. And we know that when it happens, the consequences will be catastrophic”he concluded.