The US-Israeli war against Iran has entered a dangerous and deeply uncertain phase just twelve days after it began. What the American president, Donald Trump, presented on February 28 as a rapid offensive to weaken the Iranian regime It has become a regional conflict that threatens to upset the strategic balance of the Middle East, shake global energy markets and open a new political front within the country.
The operation began with a series of massive coordinated attacks between the United States and Israel against Iranian military facilities and government centers. Washington described the offensive as the start of “major combat operations” aimed at neutralizing Tehran’s military capacity and curbing its influence in the region.
One of the most dramatic events of the first day of bombing was the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, confirmed by Iranian state television following an attack in Tehran. The leader, who had dominated the country’s politics for more than three decades, died in the midst of the airstrikes that shook the Iranian capital.
A political earthquake
Khamenei’s disappearance caused a political earthquake within the regime. However, the system reacted quickly. Just days later, the Iranian religious and military establishment announced that his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, would assume supreme leadership, consolidating an accelerated succession in the midst of war.
Far from weakening Iranian resistance, the offensive appears to have strengthened the regime’s willingness to respond. In recent days, Iran has launched missile and drone attacks against Israel, US military bases in the Middle East and several Gulf countries. At the same time, Israel has intensified its bombings against positions of the Shiite group Hezbollah in Lebanon, one of Tehran’s most important allies in the region.
From Washington, Trump insists that the military operation is working as planned. In an interview with the Axios portal, the president assured that the campaign has caused “more damage than was thought possible.” “The war is going very well. We are way ahead of schedule“said the president, who also assured that “there is practically nothing left to attack in Iran.”
Trump has defended the offensive as a response to decades of Iranian hostility. “They are paying for 47 years of death and destruction that they caused in the region,” he declared. However, the president’s optimistic tone contrasts with the growing uncertainty about the real objectives of the war. In recent days, Trump has alternated between demand the “unconditional surrender” of the Iranian regime and suggest that the conflict could end soon. At the same time, he has hinted that he does not rule out sending US ground troops if the situation demands it.
Lack of strategy
The apparent lack of a clear strategy has drawn criticism in Washington. The Democratic Senator Mark Kelly He accused the Administration of having started the war without a defined plan. “They don’t have a calendar, they don’t have clear objectives and they don’t have an exit strategy,” he said. Even within the Government itself, the message seems poorly defined. The Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth recently declared that it is up to the president to decide “whether we are at the beginning, the middle or the end of the war.”
Meanwhile, the Pentagon claims to have achieved important progress on the ground. According to military sources, much of the Iranian navy has been destroyed and the country’s capabilities to launch missiles and drones have been seriously weakened. But the conflict has opened another strategic front that worries governments and markets: the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 20% of the world’s oil transits through this maritime passage. Since the start of the war, commercial traffic has been practically paralyzed.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has warned that it will not allow the passage of “not a single liter of oil” as long as American attacks continue. The threat has caused strong volatility in energy markets and has set off alarm bells in Washington. Former US House Speaker Newt Gingrich warned that if the United States fails to keep the Strait open, the conflict could become a global economic problem.
“If the strait remains closed for a long time, the world will react to the increase in the price of oil,” he said. The consequences of the conflict They are felt even in unexpected areas. The Iranian Government announced that its national soccer team will not participate in the next World Cup due to the security situation resulting from the war.
A less safe country
“Our players have no guarantees to attend,” explained the Iranian Sports Minister. In the United States, public support for the war does not seem to be consolidating either. Several recent polls show that a significant portion of voters believe that Military intervention makes the country less safe.
The conflict also generates concern among European allies. Although some governments have expressed limited support for the military operation, several leaders have warned that each day of fighting raises more questions about the direction of the war. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz summed it up clearly: “Every day of war raises new doubts, especially because There doesn’t seem to be a clear plan. to end this conflict.”
With fighting spreading throughout the region, energy markets on alert and a US strategy still unclear, the war threatens to become another long conflict in the Middle East. A perspective that many thought they had left behind, but that is now projected again on the international board.