The transformation of international order is not just a matter of foreign policy: it is also a national security challenge. This is understood by the Spanish armed forces, which have delineated three probable geostrategic scenarios for the next five or ten years.
Within the framework of the New Defense and Space Forum, recently held in Madrid, the Chief of the General Staff of the Defense (Jemad), Admiral General Teodoro Esteban López Calderón, presented these hypotheses that start from a common axis: the prolongation of global instability and the emergence of new power balances.
The prolonged ‘status’: false peace
The first scenario contemplated by JEMAD is The continuity of the current situationmarked by a stagnant conflict in Ukraine without a final resolution. This “false peace” would imply a frozen war, with a high non -binding fire that would leave the deep causes of the conflict open.
In this context, Western support to kyiv would continue to be key: “If economic pressure on Russia weakens or decreases military assistance to Ukraine, Moscow could impose and modify regional balance,” López Calderón warned. Despite the sanctions and war costs, The Russian economy survives thanks to its energy exportsstaying as a relevant actor.
In addition, this scenario would maintain Chronic instability in the Middle Eastwith Iran progress in their nuclear program, and without a solution to the Palestinian conflict. The JEMAD said that the region will continue to be “an area of global repercussion”, which reinforces the need for constant strategic care.
Second Cold War: Two blocks in tension
The second scenario is a New Cold Warcharacterized by a clear division of the world into two blocks led by the United States and China. In this framework, Europe would closely align with Washington, while Russia would act as Beijing satellite power.
This model reminds of the bipolar balance of the twentieth century, although with updated dynamics. López Calderón highlights the current alignment signs between Russia and China, such as bilateral agreements and Indirect assistance of double -use material On the part of Beijing, essential for the maintenance of the Russian military industry.
The European Union, although culturally and historically cohesive with the United States, would lose room for maneuver if it does not reinforce its autonomy. In parallel, The alliance between Russia and China would be favored by the growing technological rivalry between the West and the East, which would consolidate a divided world not only militarily, but also in industrial and digital terms.
The tripolar world: three superpowers with their own spheres
The third stage is the most rupturist: The appearance of three great independent superpowers (United States, China and Russia) Each with its area of differentiated influence. This situation would only be viable if Russia achieves a clear victory over Ukrainewhich would allow him to uncheck his strategic dependence on China.
In that hypothetical future, Moscow would strengthen ties with other partners such as Iran and North Koreaseeking to rearm and recover financially, while diversifying their alliances to reduce its subordination to Beijing.
For its part, China would intensify its presence in the indopacific regionconsolidating its control over territories played as Taiwan and exerting pressure in the South China Sea. Chinese influence would also be felt on nations such as the Philippines, Vietnam and even Japan, in a framework of regional assertiveness and hybrid operations.
The role of Europe: strategic autonomy as imperative
Regardless of the scenario that materializes, the common denominator is a Weakened Europe if it does not reinforce its autonomous role in defense and security. López Calderón was clear: “The great organizations, such as NATO and the European Union, will lose part of its relevance if they do not adapt to these new scenarios.”
Therefore, It is urgent to increase investment in defensewith the aim of achieving effective deterrence. The Jemad stressed that Spain, with 2.1% of GDP allocated to defense, can fulfill its international commitments. However, he also stressed the need for strengthen the transatlantic bond without giving up greater strategic independence within the continent.
The emphasis is placed on the internal cohesion of the EU, key to responding to the threats, whether hybrid, conventional or geopolitical. As López Calderón recalled, The future world order is not writtenbut its configuration will depend on the outcome in Ukraine, the relations between the powers and the ability of Europe to defend their interests without external guardianships.
The Armed Forces not only foresee military scenarios, but also raise a deep reflection on The role that Spain and Europe must play in an increasingly unpredictable, tense and competitive world. A world in which deterrence, autonomy and cooperation will be key to preserving peace and stability.