Although regions like Western Europe are suffering this summer from chain heat waves and serious droughts, the increases in temperatures associated with El Niño phenomenon They are yet to come. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts that the most intense effects of this phenomenon will begin to be noticed at the end of the year and will continue during the first months of 2027.
“With the Child already established in the Pacific, We expect to see a rebound in world temperatures. The highest ones tend to occur after it has reached its maximum, normally between November and January,” the WMO’s head of climate information, John Kennedy, explained in a press conference, reported by Efe.
The expert clarified that the current heat waves in Western Europe They are rather a product of long term global warming driven by the greenhouse effect, combined with a persistent pattern of alternating high and low pressure systems. During July and August, these high pressures They have simultaneously affected Western Europe, North America and Central Asia.
Record lows in European rivers
According to him Copernicus Climate Change Service, Western Europe experienced its warmest June-July period since records exist. On a global scale, this past July was the second warmest in history, with a medium temperature 1.47 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average (1850-1900).
WMO spokesperson Clare Nullis, warned that the region faces a succession of heat waves accompanied by a drastic precipitation deficit qthat has left the flow of large rivers such as the Seine, Rhine or Danube: “In some parts of Europe the deficit is large and has been building up for several months, so a summer storm won’t be enough to recover river levels and soil moisture.”
In countries like Hungary, Serbia and the Adriatic coast It is estimated that they would be necessary between 250 and 350 millimeters of additional rain to normalize the situation.
Alert for super typhoons in the Pacific
While Europe dries upother latitudes face the opposite extreme. The Child acts as a powerful meteorological catalyst that is triggering the cyclonic activity in the Pacific Northwest. A report published by the firm Eurotempest, based on data from the Tropical Storm Risk organization, predicts a exceptionally active typhoon seasona, locating a 60% above the climatological average registered between 1991 and 2020.
The destructive effects are already being felt in the region. He Typhoon Dolphin recently caused the evacuation of more than 1.6 million people in central and northern China, while tropical cyclones Luis and Maymay left 19 dead and 2.2 million affected in the Philippines.
To date, the Cyclone Accumulated Energy Index It is the seventh highest in the last 60 years and they have already formed three category 5 typhoons before August.
Added to these forecasts is the estimate from the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which gives an 81% probability that this El Niño episode will be very strong between October and December, ranking among the highest since 1950, with a 97% chance that the phenomenon will persist until spring 2027.