At the beginning of his “Manual of coexistence”, edited by Espasa, Juanma Moreno He recreates what, until not so long ago, seemed like a real impossibility for his political formation, the Popular Party: obtaining the presidency of the Junta de Andalucía. Even those closest to him, he remembers, almost told him not to even try. That there was nothing to do. If it was not achieved even in 2012, in the midst of the outbreak of the “ERE case” and after the absolute majority of Mariano Rajoywhich was a historic defeat for the PSOE; Yeah Javier Arenasthen, was left at the gates of glory with a pyrrhic victory, it was little less than absurd to fantasize about a change of cards in the most populated community in Spain.
But, in 2018, the miracle worked. In the least expected way. And to everyone’s surprise. A group called Vox, which hardly anyone had heard of, suddenly garnered 395,978 votes and… “match point”. For the first time in all of democracy, the Parliament of what was always the traditional breadbasket of votes for the left, changed its majority in favor of the center-right. For the first time, there was an alternative sum. PP, Ciudadanos and Vox.
The tides of protesters against the management of a deteriorating public health system, the organic problems in the socialist family, the wear and tear due to corruption. Just a few months after the arrival of Pedro Sanchez to Moncloa, the PSOE suffered an emotional setback from which, even today, it has not recovered. He lost one of his most precious assets: the San Telmo Palace.
It was the beginning of the end of a hegemony. And it was a turning point in the future of Spain. The south, in the collective imagination, land of chiefs and workers, preluded at that moment what was to come. In just four years, the total number of left-wing groups decreased from 1,593,283 supports to 1,172,547. Meanwhile, the right increased their support from 1,768,884 to 2,197,214. A record figure that led the PP to an absolute majority and Vox to an increase of two seats.
In between, in the year 2023, something similar happened in another land that had always, always been “socialist.” Estremadura. In fact, when the PP won and governed José Antonio Monago He did it thanks to an unnatural pact, with Izquierda Unida. But, in the regional elections of 28M, there was also an electoral shift in favor of the center-right. Of the 330,571 endorsements obtained four years earlier, the left kept 279,038. The right went from 265,570 to 279,038.
Andalusia and Extremadura, Extremadura and Andalusia, two sides of the same coin. A metamorphosis that, in reality, represents a great political anomaly. Already consolidated in the new electoral cycle. The two regions will hold elections soon. Extremadura will go first, in a matter of weeks, on December 21. Then, Andalusia. And the most striking thing of all is that, today, the public debate does not revolve around a possible recovery of the left. Quite the opposite.
Given the double electoral date, the only thing that is in vogue is how much more or less the PP will depend on Vox. If Moreno loses the absolute or if Maria Guardiola he gets it. Since Sánchez arrived at Moncloa until today, the two territories where the PSOE had roots have moved to the right to levels never seen before. All the polls predict growth on the right, comfortably above 50% of support, and a collapse on the left.
In Andalusia, the socialist candidate, Maria Jesus Monterowho is also number two in the party and the Government, trusts her fate to that of Vox. The only success in terms of narrative for Sánchez would be a rise of the green party that forces the PP to deal with him. Because there is not a single opinion study that predicts any option for the opposition in Andalusia. Not in Extremadura either.
Active and retired politicians and sociologists such as Narciso Michavilapresident and founder of GAD3, point to several factors of the new political reality in the southern lands of Spain.
As highlighted to LA RAZÓN by a member of the team of Alberto Núñez Feijóoit has been “normalized” that neither “in Extremadura nor in Andalusia” “a political turnaround” is in doubt. The world upside down. «At what point have we become accustomed to In two territories that have always belonged to the PSOE, is the right now on the rise? Without wanting to go into details, he emphasizes one fact: the reversal has occurred since Sánchez came to power.
The PSOE, third in discord
In the opinion of those who held positions of the highest responsibility with the PSOE in the past, the horizon looks worse than bad for their people in what were their fiefdoms, for decades impregnable. “We are now the third party in contention.” From leading the two regions, to being mere spectators. The contest, he acknowledges, is being fought on the right. “Now all we have to see is how the PP deals with Vox.” This person agrees with the analysis from Genoa. The seed of everything is Sánchez. “It has become a machine for creating far-right voters.”
Vox’s rise in the polls, however, hides other realities. For Narciso Michavila, the phenomenon is not even national. It comes from beyond. «What Pedro Sánchez is doing is accelerating a long-term global trend». And he gives an example: “Texas was Democratic and now it is Republican.” Texas as the epitome of a key southern state in the world’s first Western democracy that crosses from one shore to the other.
But there is no need to go that far, you don’t even have to cross the pond. In Europe, the so-called “industrial red heart” of Germany is now under the rule of the CDU. And what happens there, he assures, “is not very different” from what happens here. In the specific case of Andalusia, a sort of Hispanic California, “the left has been abandoning the workers,” with an ideological agenda focused on identity issues and far from the speeches that the rural classes want to hear. A disconnection that causes a transfer towards more anti-system forces. Another example: Le Pen’s National Front in France.
In Andalusia and Extremadura, the countryside continues to be a decisive vector of the vote. No matter how much other productive sectors such as services have gained weight. Which also explains the momentum that the PP has gained.
Although there is an element that cannot be ignored. If the PSOE has lost all trace of a majority in Andalusia and Extremadura, it is also due to the territorial policy applied by Sánchez. Since their pacts to remain in power are based on the privileges of the regions that have always been called “the richest”, in the case of the Basque Country and Catalonia, there is a counterreaction, says Michavila. “from the Ebro down.” And the current legislature has its founding milestone in an amnesty for those responsible for the process. Episode that the Government considers amortized, but that remains in the memory of the voters.
In the run-up to a new electoral cycle, the territorial map will rearrange the pieces of the puzzle. According to the president of GAD3, the first flying goal, the Extremaduran team, will be a kind of small rehearsal for what is to come in the rest of the country. The first flying goal. “Extremadurans are going to respond to many of the electoral uncertainties that Spaniards have.”
With a PSOE candidate prosecuted, Guardiola’s PP has set itself the main objective of achieving a “sufficient majority”, that is, for the sum of deputies from its party to exceed the entire left combined. This first examination will condition the morale of the following elections: in Castilla y León, a fiefdom of the right.