The season of Atlantic hurricanes of 2024which runs from June 1 to November 30, occurs with a probability of 85% exceed normal activity levels, according to the latest forecasts from the United States Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). He La Niña phenomenon that is developing in the Pacific Ocean, has global repercussions. Its opposite, El Niño, predominated last year and tended to moderate hurricane activity in the North Atlantic.
“This season will be extraordinary in many ways,” says NOAA Director Rick Spinrad. Furthermore, he highlights that The agency had never anticipated such a high number of hurricanes for May in previous years. It is expected to enter 17 and 25 storms Named hurricanes form during this period (winds of 62 kilometers per hour or more), with 8 to 13 of them becoming hurricanes (winds of 120 kph or more), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 178 kph or more).
NOAA forecasts are based on a number of factorsincluding near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and lower wind shear, all of which tend to favor the formation of tropical storms, as explained by the agency in a statement.
Furthermore, there is the possibility of a monsoon in west africa above normal, which could generater more intense storms in the Atlantic. Light trade winds can also allow hurricanes to strengthen without significant obstacles.
Human-caused climate change is exacerbating these risks, warming the oceans and rising sea levels, increasing the danger of storm surges. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on potential damage, NOAA warns.