One year later, has Israel achieved its goals in Gaza? More than 96 hostages, 30 of whom Israel believes are dead, remain in Hamas hands.
Israel’s goals are divided between restoring national security and avenging its losses. There is no clear point at which any of those objectives can be declared to have been achieved, and in the process Israel has extended its military action to Lebanon and Iran. That Israel prioritizes security over revenge has divided the country, while the family and friends of the hostages despair that their government will work to secure their release. And the longer the war continues, the more opposition it will provoke, making it more likely that Israel’s security will be threatened again in the future. In the end, there is no solution by military means.
Has Israel learned from the intelligence mistakes that failed to prevent the massive Hamas attack of October 7, 2023?
It seems not. The (all-female) observer force that had expressed concern about an imminent attack, only to be ignored by the (all-male) higher command, has complained that its intelligence information was overlooked before the October 7 and remains ignored today. Israel hopes to degrade the arsenals and manpower of its enemies in Gaza and southern Lebanon, and contain its sponsor state, Iran, and has demonstrated remarkable penetration into the organization of its enemies. But that is the intelligence to attack, rather than to defend. And while you’re battering your enemies, you’re losing the ability to gather the intelligence needed to prevent future threats.
What is Israel looking for by opening a new war front in Lebanon?
By all indications, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have been planning the war against Hezbollah for more than 15 years, as they had never done with Hamas in Gaza. Israel’s objectives appear to be twofold: to degrade the threat that Hezbollah’s arsenal and manpower pose to Israel’s northern border, and to reassure Israeli citizens that their government and army have the means to infiltrate and destroy a powerful enemy like Hezbollah.
Of course, Israel justifies the war in Lebanon on the grounds of stopping the daily rocket attacks that have forced more than 60,000 Israelis to flee their homes in northern Israel. However, a ceasefire with Hamas, returning the hostages home and ending the suffering of civilians in Gaza, would have achieved the same end. Opening a new war front in the Levantine country cannot be justified for these reasons. Israel clearly wanted to punish the Shiite Hezbollah organization for the damage it has inflicted over the past year.
Is the military operation against Hezbollah intended to overshadow the war in Gaza?
I couldn’t say. It seems to me that it allows Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to preserve war solidarity to mend the divisions in Israeli society caused by the actions and failures of the coalition government during this last year. But it is clear that international public opinion has shifted its gaze from the Gaza Strip to southern Lebanon. However, the suffering in Gaza has not abated, nor are Israelis and Palestinians any closer to finding a solution to the longest war in the Arab-Israeli conflict.