The asteroid 2024 YR4 has caused the UN Activate, for the first time, the Planetary Security Protocol Given the possibility of impacting the earth in 2032. 2024 YR4 It was discovered last December and then it was estimated that the probability was 1%. Today, the European Space Agency (ESA, for its acronym in English) The probability of an impact on the land to 1.8%has increased, almost double the initially estimated.
It was on December 27 when the Last Sterrestrial Asteroid Alert System (Atlas) detected from Chili The asteroid for the first time and 31 entered the list Sentry of the POT With a 1% of impact probability. Successive estimates have progressively uploaded to 1.8% announced by the Coordination Center of objects close to Earth (Neocc) of ESA.
According to the observations made so far, 2024 YR4 has A diameter of between 40 and 90 meters and its impact would occur December 22, 2032. The areas of the planet in which it could take place are northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, South Asia or Eastern Pacific Ocean. Europe, in principle, would be safe from an impact of 2024 YR4.
According to the NEOCC, the Space Missions Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) of the UN is the agency responsible for coordinating the international response to any asteroid with a diameter greater than 50 meters and a probability of impact of at least 1%. The SMPAG has decided to continue monitoring the situation and Get together at the end of April or early May to reassess it.
It will be then when the asteroid, who is currently moving away from the earth, will cease to be captured by observation instruments. This will reduce the ability to be able to perform new calculations on its size and trajectory.
The NEOCC considers that the probability of impact is ‘very small’but logically it is not despicable. The usual thing in these cases is that, as more information is obtained, That percentage decreases. Currently, there is a 98.2% of probability that it will pass by December 22, 2032. At the moment, 2024 YR4 is classified in a Level 3 (of 10) in the Impact Risk Scale; It is from level 8 when an impact occurs safely.
This situation remembers what was had in 2004 when it was estimated that the asteroid Apophis He had a 2.7% chance to impact the earth in 2029. As more data was obtained, that probability was going down to disappear.