As expected, the majority of Congress has asked the Government to proceed with recognizing the victory of Edmundo González Urrutia in the elections of July 28 and, consequently, his status as president-elect of Venezuela, who should take office on January 10.
The House of Representatives’ vote was 177 in favour, 164 against and one abstention. The Government thus begins the new session with a setback in foreign policy from the House, and has already announced other uncomfortable debates on its agenda, such as the forced appearance of President Pedro Sánchez to talk about immigration.
In the case of Venezuela, the government will ignore the mandate of Congress because its decision is to seek refuge in the position that the European Union still maintains today, instead of placing itself at the forefront to lead it.
In any case, the parliamentary problem for the PSOE threatens to grow. And yesterday Junts already said that the PSC-ERC pact “is not an economic agreement” and that they will once again overturn the deficit. The demand of Carles Puigdemont’s party is that Catalonia be in charge of all income and all expenses in its territory.
The Government has a response that is striking. They explain that, if their deficit path is rejected, they will use the one already in force to present the new budget project. There will be a text, no matter what, and, in fact, they are already discussing it with their partners, with the PNV, but also with Junts, which, on the one hand, is keeping its swords high, and, on the other, is willing to listen to the proposals that are sent to them by the Government.
The key is in the position of power that Moncloa believes it has with the control of the Constitutional Court presided by Cándido Conde-Pumpido. The Constitutional Court is going to take its time in analyzing the appeals that have been received against the amnesty. The court has unanimously accepted the abstention of the former Minister of Justice Juan Carlos Campo, after having said as Sánchez’s minister that the law was “clearly unconstitutional” in the reports on the pardons. And it has also already admitted the question of unconstitutionality raised by the Supreme Court against the law. But now a long process is beginning, which the Government is interested in prolonging as much as possible because they believe that, as long as Puigdemont does not have the amnesty assured, “he will not end up leaving the fold.” He can threaten, he can make parliamentary action difficult, but without dealing the final death blow to Sánchez’s government because he needs the Constitutional Court, with a progressive majority, to act in accordance with what was agreed and end up giving the green light to the law of pardon for the separatists for the crimes of the “procés”.
So the process in the TC will move slowly – some sources say it could take at least a year – and will be complicated by the war of recusals that the two sectors, the progressive and the conservative, will raise. The numbers would give five votes to the sector identified with the right and six to the left. For the moment, the TC has only processed the first matter related to the Amnesty Law and that is the appeal of unconstitutionality that the Supreme Court submitted to it last July, considering that article 1 of the measure of clemency violates the constitutional right to equality and the principles of legal certainty, prohibition of arbitrariness and jurisdictional exclusivity.
According to sources at the High Court, the response to this appeal will take between six months and a year, and the decision will set the course for the rest of the questions and appeals of unconstitutionality, although it cannot be automatically applied to all of them.
The Government takes it for granted that, as long as Puigdemont is still waiting for the Constitutional Court’s decision, he is tied, at the same time, to Sánchez, so all his threats are “fireworks”, since his future is in the hands of the President of the Government. The confirmation of the amnesty would leave him free to change direction and opt for a Feijóo Executive.
Graphically, there are those who say in the Government’s entourage that Puigdemont is “caught by the underbelly” and that beneath so many proclamations there is nothing more than a desire to be noticed that he is condemned to remain in firing shots. Obviously, the accumulated parliamentary defeats are a very large element of wear and tear on the Government, but if it is a matter of playing to distract attention and gain time, Sánchez’s team has demonstrated unsurpassed mastery.
They are now thinking of presenting a draft budget so generous to Catalonia that it will make it very difficult for Junts to justify its “no”. If Puigdemont wanted to, the PGE could not be processed until the amendments for the devolution were approved.
Another important question that is up in the air is how the tax changes that the Government has committed to will be implemented. The Treasury has been working for a long time on how to convert the taxes on banks, energy companies and large estates into permanent taxes. This requires processing as a bill, and opening a process in Congress in which they can find alternative majorities that change the direction of their intentions.
It also remains to be seen how they will carry out their announcement of new tax increases, and whether they will opt for the route of muddying the waters with omnibus laws or sneaking these tax changes into implausible legislative initiatives.