Geopolitics has taken a turn during this last month. In the Middle East, the United States and Israel have harshly attacked Iran. In fact, on February 28 it was announced to the world that the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had died during the attacks launched by the allied countries. From then on, every day there has been a new story, information and data that reveal that the situation is complex, as well as complicated. Among the most notable facts is the “no” of Spain and other countries in the European environment, such as Italy, to participate in offensive operations. Not even to provide logistical support from their bases on both peninsulas. Which has caused other countries to distance themselves from the policies of Washington and Tel Aviv.
However, during the recent events that have once again shaken the world order, Spain has continued with its policy of rearmament. Despite the “no war” launched by the Government headed by Pedro Sánchez, the truth is that the Iberian country maintains its efforts to improve, modernize and increase the systems and equipment available to the Spanish Armed Forces. This same week the Council of Ministers has kept pace and has budgeted a new flow of economic aid for the Ministry of Defense.
According to the information published by the administration, no less than 1,339 million euros will reach Defense so that they can be allocated, as has been said, to “meet unavoidable needs.” We do not yet know what exactly this billion dollar figure will be used for. It can be confirmed that the approved amount represents more than ten percent of the initial budget of the Ministry of Defense. Which makes it one of the most significant economic decisions adopted so far this year.
The resolution of the Council of Ministers joins those already taken previously throughout 2025, where an unofficial source has stressed that the Government “is showering millions” on the country’s military industry. Among the most notable announcements is last April, when Pedro Sánchez announced a budget of 10,471 million euros for national defense material. That said, and in light of the reinforcement of this trend, we must reflect on the big question placed before us like a white elephant in the room: Is Spain safe from a future conflict?
As the popular saying goes, Sánchez and his government have seen “the ears of the wolf” and. For more than a year, the Administration has been working hard with purchases and modernization. However, this is taking place in the middle of a silent crisis within the Armed Forces due to the quality of life of the members of the troops and sailors, who demand better salary conditions (among other things).
Despite this difficulty, the budgetary progress has continued acquiring material of all kinds, modernizing the systems and, very importantly, creating new projects that, in theory, should provide Spain with innovative and cutting-edge equipment in order to prepare for the times to come. This is the case of Indra, which has once again been awarded a substantial contract to develop the battle tank of the future.
Regarding the question, the answer is complicated, like the situation in which Spain finds itself at a strategic level. At the moment, Spain does not have in its arsenals any material that could be a “deterrent” against a potential enemy. It is true that the Armed Forces have superior aviation than their problematic North African neighbor. Furthermore, the Navy is another of the essential assets on which Spain relies, as well as its missile location and interception systems.
Now, up to this point we can list its potential in dealing with a hostile state at long distances. The country remains aloof from developments in hypersonic missileswhich right now are the pinnacle of conventional attacks, as well as kamikaze attack drones, despite the fact that Europe is venturing down this path.
The missile batteries present in the Armed Forces are focused on the air defense of the territory. The MIM-104 Patriot, acquired from the United States, and the Norwegian NASAMS II+ have long symbolized maximum power in national defense.
Therefore, Spain is not in a position to protect its sovereignty, at least independently, as expected of any modern state. This can be applied to the government’s own policy with a recent example. This month, Emmanuel Macron’s France announced that it will create a “nuclear umbrella” to increase Europe’s deterrence. Spain and Italy have informed their counterparts that they will not adhere to this plan, as they point to it as part of a “military escalation” on the continent and globally. So how is Spain going to defend itself? For some time now, the bet has been to protect oneself through the international organizations and institutions that ensure International Law, today sadly battered after the actions of the United States throughout the world. This is the greatest insurance that Spain can count on if there is a conflict.
Is this way of thinking intelligent? It depends on the conditions, since what is clear is the direction taken by current geopolitics. International Law is desirable and must preserve peace on the globe. At the moment of truth this has not worked, therefore, Spain maintains its integrity in a right that, today, is in the doldrums. Thus, our defense requires real systems and equipment to be in a position of strength against the rest of the countries and their potential enemies.
Once this parity is achieved, without the help of anyone else, you will then be able to enforce the International Law that is so defended in political discourse.
For now, Spain’s strategy will remain adhered to that thought and there is no sign that it will change in the short term. The dependence on the United States is evident and there is no desire to transform it, and this ally has become unstable and is at the center of political criticism.
Spain will maintain its tendency to “sprinkle millions” into the military industry, but without a long-term plan. And that is a serious deficiency.