The convulsive international context has worked the miracle in national politics. Donald Trump has had to arrive with his chaotic derives tariff to open a window of opportunity to the understanding between the government and the main opposition party. It is still early to ensure that this agreement ends up materializing, but before this global situation, The Spaniards have it clear and reinforce bipartisanship, as a refuge option in the face of global uncertainty, and punish Vox, aligned with the thesis of the American administration and in serious trouble to justify its favorable position to Trump.
According to the latest survey of NC Report for Reasonif there were general elections today, the PP would be the most voted force again and would rise as the winner of the elections. With a substantial difference with respect to 2023, the between 9 and 11 new seats that Alberto Núñez Feijóo would get this time would help him overcome the insurmountable distance that in the previous call they left him out of the Moncloa. The popular They would get 34.3% of the vote, that is, between 146 and 148 seats. Broking the 8.4 million voters, 236,526 more than 23J, back again – two tenths compared to March – after five months of fall, weighed by the “Mazón effect.” Their voters now not punish the expectation of a pact with the government.
This, because The PP is the game with the greatest vote fidelity. 88.4% of those who chose Feijóo in 2023 would do it again and their vote leaks are limited to vox (5.3%) and abstention 3.7%; While 9.1% of ancient voters from Santiago Abascal and 8.1% of socialist ex -artists are nourished. By generational forks, the popular are the first option for those over 45 and from 65 they have their electoral niche.
Of Abascal’s hand
To get to La Moncloa, however, Feijóo would have to forge an entente with Vox. With those of Santiago Abascal, which would get between 40 and 42 deputiesthe absolute majority (186/190) would overcome, which would leave without options any alternative alliance on the left. The ultra -right formation, however, accuses its proximity to Trump’s theses in full tariff attack. Vox suffers a setback between three and two seats in just one month, after five months of electoral growth. They are four tenths of punishment of their voters who would take refuge in the PP.
Despite this corrective, The Abascal improve their results with respect to 23J and would get between nine and seven more deputieswhich means almost 395,000 new votes. The electoral loyalty of its voters is high, 85.7%would vote again for Vox and its vote leaks are concentrated in the PP (9.1%), abstention (2.9%) and the party is over (2.3%). By ages, the niche of Abascal voters is in the younger generations, with its boom between 33 and 44 years, age from which they are falling into chopped.
Sánchez endures
With the right unbeatable in numbers, the spectrum of the left is distributed between the resistance of the PSOE, which manages to keep the bulk of its 23J support, and the fratricidal struggle between adding and Podemos. If there were elections today, Pedro Sánchez would remain at 7 million votes, which would result in 120-118 seatsa slight improvement with respect to the March survey and a setback between three and a deputy with respect to its current representation. A limited impact taking into account the wear and tear of management, of the pacts with independence – among them, the law of amnesty -, and the damage of judicial cases, from the “Koldo Case” to those that affect the most direct environment of the President of the Government.
The Socialists keep 76.2% of those who voted on 23J and it is symptomatic that the main leakage of voters to another party is to the PP (8.1%) and not to other leftist formations (2.4% to add and 0.3% to Podemos) matched or surpassed by those who would now opt for Vox (2.2%). In the generational fork, the PSOE is the first option for younger voters, until 29, where he has his main niche of voters (18.9%).
Sumar still falls
The PSOE resistance is partially found in the electoral strangulation of its coalition partners. Add is politically empty in an impossible sandwich among socialists and Podemos. Sánchez’s collect 25%of exvertants and purple 31.3%, almost as many as those who would repeat in the coalition so far led by Yolanda Díaz (33.4%). The new course of electoral device does not feel good at the democopic level, because He would barely achieve 5.4% of votes, that is, between 8 and 9 deputies, for the 31 that he got 23J. This debacle – Sumar would be left 1.7 million votes if there were elections today – would make him lose between 22 and 23 seats and leave the revalidation of the coalition government without options.
This decomposition of adding is used by Podemos to reissue the representation they currently have and that would not allow them to leave the mixed group. If there were elections today, the purple with Irene Montero at the head would get between four and five seats and one million votes. The rest of most of the investiture would virtually maintain its representation, with a certain dance dance, one up for junts (8) and one below for ERC (6)in Catalan independence and a slight advance for the PNV (6) that would allow him to match EH Bildu in seats, although the abertzales would continue ahead in votes.
The BNG would get one more seat, up to two, and UPN and Canarian coalition would remain in a single representative. The party is over fails to exceed 3% required and would be out of Congress. Abstention could climb a point, although it must be borne in mind that the lack of electoral tension, without a call in view, makes the respondents show more reluctant than when the polls are approaching.
Feijóo, the most valued of downward leaders
The assessment of national leaders leaves them away from the approved. Some more than others, but with a generalized setback of one tenth with respect to the same barometer of the month of March. The best valued is Alberto Núñez Feijóo with 4.4 out of 10. The PP leader celebrates its result in those over 45. Pedro follows Sanchez with 4.2, A very uniform assessment in all generational ranges, although highlighting, if possible, in the strip of between 30 and 44 years.
They are located Yolanda Díaz (3,6) and Santiago Abascal (3,2) that do not even reach the 4 score. For matches, the PSOE voters value Feijóo with a 3.3 Yalanda Díaz with a 5.7 and Sánchez put a 6.6, the lowest note granted by voters to their leader. The voters of adding 6.1 to the president and in Vox approve of Feijóo with a 5.1. PP voters give their leader a 7.5 already abascal a shy 3.7.