Gabriel Rufián He stirred a little – a little more, if possible – the political board this week by proposing a kind of great plurinational coalition, armed from the periphery and left. In Román Paladino: he proposed that all independence or sovereignty left parties and what they are adding today and we can attend the next general elections together.
Rufián seeks that this wide and heterogeneous space that is located to the left of the PSOE makes a common front with the aim of getting more seats, in a context in which the victory of the right occurs as the most likely option.
Apart from whether it is viable to achieve something like this transverse on the political level, since the cross interests of each party should be assess, the truth is that in a numerical plane it does mean. NC Report has done a study for reason trying to approach the idea to something palpable and it has been analyzed how 23J would have been if that great coalition had occurred.
This allows us to observe how last elections would have changed if the Rufián project had materialized and, above all, it also allows you to make sense for the future.
Separately, The whole space obtained in the last elections a total of 45 seatswhich were distributed as follows: 31 to add (including five of Podemos and one from Més Per Mallorca), seven for ERC, six for EH Bildu and one of the BNG.
If all of them, on the other hand, would have attended the elections under a single ballot and the votes for some would have been votes for all, The sum would grow to the 49 seats. There are four more than they would have obtained separately. This coalition would be consolidated without any problem as the third group of the Congress of Deputies, since the one in that position is Vox and in the last elections he obtained 33 elected deputies, much less.
Although a priori four seats may seem a relatively small difference, in a congress of deputies as fragmented as the current one can be decisive. It may be enough to decant an investiture or make a difference between a law approved or not. Junts has only seven seats and practically dictates the government action. We can, which has been reduced to four seats after the departure of Lilith Verstryng and lose one in favor of adding, is usually determinant as well. This same week, it caused with its vote against that the Government could not validate the Royal Anti-Pagones Decree.
According to the NC Report study, the four seats that all matches would win if they were presented together would come from the constituencies of Barcelona, Guipúzcoa, Navarre and Pontevedra. They are precisely territories of that periphery to which Rufián appealed when he said, last Tuesday, that “it touches the sovereign, independence, self -determinist, federalist or confederalist lefts to create this plurinational left that has been requested for so many years.” In addition, there are four territories that can be very important for what is sought.
There is an example of its importance. In the last general elections, in Guipúzcoa they obtained Bildu, PSOE and PNV seats, two deputies each party. Add also appeared to this constituency, but due to the application of the d’hont system their votes were useless in this province and did not get a seat.
However, under the coalition, their votes would be added to those of Bildu and among all would get three seats, half of those distributed by the province. And perhaps the most important, They would subtract a seat from the PNV. It is a good scenario for them because they would have stolen a seat to the Basque nationalist right.
But they can also steal the PSOE, becoming more necessary for the Socialists in the Congress of Deputies and thus raising the price of their support. It is what would have happened in the rest of the constituencies. In Navarra, the PSOE took two seats and Bildu Uno. Under the coalition, the space would have stolen a seat to the socialists and would have remained as the force with more deputies in the province.
In Pontevedra, where PSOE took three and add only one, they would have tied for two. In Barcelona, although The PSC would continue to be the game with more force, they would also have stolen one.
The problem for Gabriel Rufián is that This sum of all the parties would only have worked on 23J if all the matches had signed up for their project. All, without leaving any outside.
ERC currently has a coalition for European elections with Bildu, BNG and Ara Més, of the Balearic Islands. According to the study of NC Report, if that coalition was presented to the general elections, where there is no unique circumscription as in the European ones, it would obtain exactly the same deputies that they all obtained separately: 15 seats.
If the votes of Podemos were incorporated, it would grow to 20 seats. That is, it would remain the same because the purple took five seats in the generals. It is only incorporating to adding when the 49 deputies would grow.