The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has issued a special notice for an episode of strong instability which will leave intense rains in a good part of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands during the next few days.
He east and northeast peninsula and Balearic Islands The main effects of the episode will be concentrated, with very strong and persistent showers that may leave more than 150 liters per square meter in less than six hours in points of the Mediterranean coast and pre-coastal.
The situation will begin to gain intensity this Thursday with the passage of a front that will sweep the Peninsula from west to east. Afterwards, the entry of cold air at medium and high levels, together with a significant contribution of humidity from the Mediterranean, will favor the formation of showers and storms. The instability will continue throughout the weekend and, according to AEMET, at least until Monday.
The episode of intense rain begins on Thursday
This Wednesday, the last day of September, a front will leave rainfall in the northwest, with a special impact on Galicia, the surroundings of the Central System and the eastern Cantabrian Sea. In the afternoon, locally strong showers may also occur in the south of Aragon, the interior of the Valencian Community and the east of Castilla-La Mancha.
On Thursday, with the beginning of October, the front will advance across the Peninsula from west to east. Precipitation will extend from the eastern interior to the Mediterranean area and they may be strong or very strong, accompanied by storms and hail.
The most affected points they will be Castellón, Valencia, the northern coast of Alicante and the south of Tarragona, although the rains may also reach areas of Lleida, Teruel and Cuenca.
The AEMET predicts that rainfall will be especially persistent from the end of Thursday and during the first half of Friday. On the Mediterranean coasts and pre-coastal areas, more than 150 l/m² in periods of less than six hours.
The Mediterranean will feed the storms
The situation will be complicated by the formation of a low pressure zone between the southeast coast of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands, which will favor the entry of a humid flow of eastern component over the Mediterranean.
This configuration will be able to feed intense and persistent stormy showerss. The Balearic Islands will also be exposed to heavy or very heavy rain, especially from the late hours of Friday.
The AEMET warns that the showers could cause Sudden local flooding in low areas, streams and boulevards, por what is considered high potential danger associated with this episode.
During the weekend Rainfall will continue in large areas of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. The largest accumulations are expected in the east, although, in principle, with less intensity than during Thursday and Friday.
More than 34 degrees in the south
Temperatures will have ups and downs depending on the area and the day, although in general they will remain somewhat above the usual values for these datess.
The thermal contrast will be especially marked between the north and the south. ANDn Burgos and Vitoria the maximum temperatures will be around 18-20 degreess, while in Murcia, Seville and Córdoba they may exceed 34 degrees.
In the Guadalquivir valley, temperatures will also exceed 34 degrees and during the weekend the maximums will be above 30-32 degrees in the southern half and in the northwest. On the other hand, the atmosphere will be more autumnal on Sunday on the northern plateau, where temperatures will remain below 20 degrees.
Possible DANA starting Sunday
AEMET’s forecast also indicates that the Next week it could start again with rain in large areas of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands.
For his part, the Meteored expert Duncan Wingenpoints to the possible formation of a DANA near the Peninsula. starting Sunday, although it warns of uncertainty about its evolution. According to this scenario, the cold air pocket would be located west of Portugalwhich would favor a more anticyclonic environment on the Peninsula, with southerly winds and high temperatures on the Mediterranean slope. A slight variation in your position, however, could significantly modify the forecast.
The European and American models coincide for now in the release of the DANA towards the west of Portugal. If it finally moves towards the Peninsula, it could favor intense rains and storms in the Levant and Balearicswhile, if it remains west, the showers would remain more restricted to the center and west of the peninsula. Meteored also points out that the European model points to a week of October 5 to 12 with above-average rainfall in much of Spainespecially in the eastern half.