Hot autumn. The President of the Government is preparing to resist and the moves he has initiated in an offensive key anticipate a Numantine strategy. Pedro Sánchez has made anticipation one of his political levers and has started this political year aware that a “new cycle” has opened. The Executive will not succeed, at least in the short term, in stabilising the legislature or banishing the feeling of interim that has accompanied it since 23J. It is time to change the script again in anticipation of new difficulties. The resolution of governability in Catalonia, far from clearing the horizon – as expected in Moncloa – has complicated the immediate perspectives.
The fiscal pact signed with ERC to make Salvador Illa president has allowed, more than a decade later, a socialist to be placed at the head of the Generalitat, but the price to pay has generated deep destabilization. At an internal level, due to the undisguised discrepancies that have arisen within the PSOE itself over what they consider to be differential treatment of Catalonia, and at an external level, in terms of governability.
While waiting for key partners of the Government such as ERC and Junts to resolve their organic processes in the coming months – with a renewal of leadership and a political roadmap – the isolation of the post-convergents from the equation of Catalan governability may cause them not to feel concerned in the arithmetic of the investiture. They already gave a serious warning in July, knocking down the deficit target, and in Moncloa they are already working with the scenario of having to extend the Budgets also for 2025.
In this context, Sánchez is aware that the last quarter of the year seems to be heading towards legislative hibernation and has chosen to also resolve the “pending duties” within his organisation. The president and general secretary is planning a catharsis. Addressing a process of restructuring both in the PSOE and in the Government. In the party, with the early –although ordinary– celebration of the 41st Federal Congress that will be held on 29, 30 November and 1 December in Seville. Sánchez has already announced that he will stand for re-election and seeks to do so in conditions of a certain placidity and strength. Maintaining control of the times and the teams, without having to give in to other alternative currents.
As of today, there is no internal movement to question his leadership and the intention is to block any future option that may arise under the cover of government weakness or if the discontent over decisions such as the amnesty or the singular financing of Catalonia continues to permeate. The general secretary wants to maintain his current protection and undertake an internal restructuring that will allow him to remain at the head of the party and power in case the situation becomes complicated due to the lack of support from his partners.
In addition to protecting himself internally, Sánchez seeks to maintain control of the organisation, reactivating some federations that have ceased to be electorally competitive. Those close to the president openly refer to some territories in which they have ceased to be perceived as a real alternative to the PP. The socialist leader himself pointed, after the European elections, in two directions: Andalusia, once the lung of socialism that has declined after leaving the Junta, and the Community of Madrid, a “black hole” of votes where Isabel Díaz Ayuso’s leadership eats up the advantage that the PSOE achieves in other parts of the Spanish geography. Also pending renewal are Aragón, where Javier Lambán is leaving, and Castilla y León, the first region that will go to the polls.
There is already a nervousness in the party and in certain federations about the steps that an always unpredictable Sánchez may take. “With Pedro you never know,” says a leader who recalls how he got rid of his praetorian guard – Redondo, Calvo and Ábalos – when he considered it appropriate. “You can’t anticipate anything,” says another official. Uncertainty is total, but there are socialist sources who are already advancing “profound changes.” “We need to give a boost and change the framework,” they say, pointing out that there are territories that are no longer competitive and ministers who, after a year in the Executive, remain unknown to public opinion. This is the other screen.
In addition to the renewal of the socialist leadership and some regional leaders, there is also a reshuffle of the Government. This is forced by the departure of the third vice-president and minister for the Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, Teresa Ribera, to the European Commission. In addition, Sánchez has already nominated the head of Digital Transformation and Public Service, José Luis Escrivá, to become governor of the Bank of Spain. The lack of agreement with the PP has delayed the appointment, but his name is by no means off the table. Consensus with the main opposition party is desirable, even traditional, but not an essential requirement for his appointment, so the president could promote him without the need for any pact. In this way, it could be the opportunity to strengthen the Government and design a new structure aimed at resisting, defending itself from the attacks of the opposition and protecting itself from the defeats that are anticipated in a tough coexistence with the parliamentary partners in the Congress of Deputies.
In Moncloa and Ferraz they are trying hard to convey a vocation for continuity that does not dispel doubts about a mandate that is in a slow motion and, until now, has hardly had any legislative activity, and with an Executive incapable of approving the General State Budget. From the official loudspeakers it is repeated that Sánchez “has a long way to go” and that the legislature “will end in time and form.” This continuous reiteration suggests that security is not total and that Sánchez has not managed to get rid of the feeling of instability that has accompanied him since June 23, when he managed to retain power with a devilish formula of governability.
Other socialist sources do not dare to make predictions, saying that the two months remaining until the 41st Congress are an eternity. “Where and in what conditions will we be in November?” asks one leader who does not dare to predict a better scenario, because “it is very difficult to govern like this.” All the sources consulted, however, rule out the possibility of early elections. The objective, and all of Sánchez’s movements, are aimed at resisting and doing so in the best conditions or, at least, with the least possible wear and tear.