One of the many effects of climate change is the increase in temperatures. In Puerto Rico, heat waves are becoming more frequent and extensive. Given this reality, it is crucial to understand the risk that citizens face.
Beyond temperature, there are various factors that affect thermal sensation or heat indexthat is, what heat feels like. For example, concrete and asphalt have been shown to retain heat longer, affecting urban areas and creating “islands” of extreme heat. Thermal sensation is also influenced by socioeconomic and demographic factors.
In Saint Johndue to its high population density and size, heat vulnerability maps already exist. These maps combine information on temperature, social conditions and environmental characteristics to identify the communities most exposed to the extreme heat and with fewer resources to face it. In this way, they help prioritize actions such as planting trees, creating fresh spaces and preparing health services.
However, in other municipalities, such as Poncethis type of analysis is incomplete. Since Ponce is drier, it registers higher temperatures; Also, it has more inhabitants with high levels of poverty compared to the metropolitan area, so the development of heat vulnerability models is critical for public health in the southern area..
A group of scientists, led by Dr. Laura Cabrera Rivera and under the mentorship of doctor Pablo Mendez Lazaro –both from the Department of Environmental Health of the Graduate School of Public Health of the Medical Sciences Campus of the University of Puerto Rico–, completed a detailed statistical analysis to create a heat vulnerability map of Ponce. The findings of their analysis were published in the magazine “Urban Climate” last January.
“Our research group, the ‘Caribbean Collaborative Action Network‘ (CCAN), part of the Alliances for Climate Adaptation program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, in English), works on various initiatives to help Puerto Rico adapt and prepare for extreme heat. This phenomenon increasingly affects essential sectors of our daily lives and especially vulnerable populations, such as older adults and the children“, indicated Méndez Lázaro.
Scientists measured or obtained information on different variables, including soil temperature, the amount of vegetation, the presence of cement and asphalt, population density and conditions such as poverty and aging to develop a heat model. They then used this information to create an interactive map showing how heat vulnerability is distributed across different communities in Ponce.
“To really understand vulnerability to heat, it is not enough to measure temperature. It is essential to integrate factors such as vegetation cover, impervious surfaces, population density and social conditionsbecause it is these elements that determine who is most exposed and who has the least ability to protect themselves from extreme heat,” explained Cabrera Rivera.
With the urban heat models that CCAN has developed, the next step is to collaborate directly with agencies and decision makers to create mitigation strategies based on scientific evidence.
Méndez Lázaro summarized some of these initiatives. For example, reforestation activities are carried out in schools, led by the Department of Educationto create fresher and healthier spaces. In addition, CCAN offers training workshops to educators, first responders, Emergency Management personnel, the Hospital Association and groups of older adults, so that each sector can better prepare for the challenges of extreme heat.
With 78 municipalities on the island, the efforts of Cabrera Rivera, Méndez Lázaro and their CCAN colleagues are just beginning. Their plan is to expand the heat vulnerability maps to other cities in Puerto Rico.
The author is a professor of Physics and Science Education at Morehead State University, Kentucky, and a member of Ciencia Puerto Rico (www.cienciapr.org).