The asteroid 2024 YR4 It became the celestial body yesterday more likely impact on the earth that has been observed. Both the POT like the European Space Agency (ESA)which update their forecasts daily, they uploaded the risk of a 3.1 % and a 2.8 %respectively. But the title, fortunately, has lasted little. In today’s update, Both space agencies have drastically reduced the probability of a collision in 2032 to less than half: NASA, to 1.5 % And ESA, to 1.4 %also reducing alarmism due to the possibility of a catastrophe caused by 2024 YR4. The one that clashes with the moon instead of against the earth or following its trajectory, is in a 0.8 %.
This asteroid, with an estimated diameter of Between 40 and 90 meterswas detected by the Observatory ATLAS from Chile at the end of December. Shortly after he entered the list Sentry from NASA, which monitors possible impact against the Earth, and caused the UN will activate for the first time the Planetary Security Protocolwhile the UN Space Missions Planning Group (SMAPG)began to coordinate the international response.
After a week with limited visibility to observe the asteroid from the earth, Due to the full moonAstronomers now have a greater capacity to study it. The new data from Vary Large Telescope Chile have allowed more impact probability to adjust, which is now less, in a behavior similar to the asteroid Apophis In 2004.
Then, it was estimated that this asteroid, with a diameter of 324 metersI had a 2.7 % of possibilities of impacting the earth on 2029. Subsequent observations about its trajectory concluded that the earth did not enter its orbit and The risk was reduced to zero. It is the same that is expected to happen with 2024 YR4.
The observations will continue until 2024 YR4, currently moving away from the Earth, is beyond the reach of the observation instruments. This will happen At the beginning of Mayat which time SMAPG will meet again to evaluate, if necessary, ways of diverting the asteroid of your trajectory.
In the first week of March, the Space Telescope James Webb It will begin to observe the asteroid and probably allow to know its size more accurate and adjust the impact probability percentage even more. ESA trusts, in 90 %, in being able to completely rule out an impact before 2024 YR4 is too far. If not, we will have to wait Until 2028 to be close enough to study it and gather more data.