Normally, regional leaders do not like their elections to be read in a national key, because it elevates the debate to a level that is not theirs. But to Alfonso Fernández Mañueco There will be no other choice, because the elections in Castilla y León, scheduled for March 15, will likely be the first to be held in 2026 and will inaugurate the new cycle that will extend until the following year.
However, Mañueco has reasons for optimism: the polls are being favorable to him. According to the survey carried out by NC Report for LA RAZÓN, the PP would win the elections in this community again and would do so with a better result than in 2022. It would go from 31.4% of the votes to 37.8%, and would be placed in a range of between 35 and 37 seats, four or six more than it has now.
These results seem to indicate that the management of this summer’s fires, the community’s biggest crisis, is not taking an excessive toll. Of course, it is still relatively far from the absolute majority, which in the Castilian-Leonese Parliament is the 41 attorneys. To be reinstated, Mañueco would have to rely on Vox again.
The far-right party, now led by David Hierro after the departure of Juan García-Gallardowould continue to be key for the investiture, although the change has harmed his electoral expectations. According to the survey, it would go from 17.6% of the votes in 2022 to 14.4% currently. Although it is a vote loss of only three points, it would be leaving behind between four and five seats and would only have eight or nine attorneys.
The survey data reflects that the rise of the PP and the fall of Vox are closely related. Only 58.6% of those who voted for García-Gallardo in 2022 would now vote for Hierro. 16.7% would now opt for the popular ballot and almost the same, 16.3% would abstain. Specifically, it means that the PP would steal around 36,000 ballots from Vox and that another 35,000 would stay at home.
Another reason that explains the victory of the PP is the age factor. At the national level, Vox is being a very attractive party for young people, but in Castilla y León that is not happening. The youngest prefer the PSOE (11.7% of those aged between 18 and 29 would vote socialist), but then they prefer the PP (8.3%), compared to Vox (6.7%). In the age range of 30 to 44, the differences between the two right-wing parties skyrocket: 16.4% would vote for the PP and only 9.5% for Vox.
This shows that Vox has a real problem in the community and is not managing to mobilize its electorate and that the PP does not reach the majority, indicates that there will be a situation of institutional blockage. Castilla y León was the first community in which the two parties experienced a coalition government, but Vox ended up leaving all the autonomous governments in July 2024. Now, Santiago Abascal’s party will have to choose between investing Mañueco without entering the Executive or reversing its separate paths strategy.
As for the left, the replacement of Luis Tudanca by Carlos Martinez in the PSOE it does not seem to bear fruit. Ferraz stopped supporting Tudanca, among other issues, arguing that he had not achieved good electoral results. But if he got 30% of the vote in 2022, he would now get 29.6%, a slight drop. Being so small, it is difficult to calculate which direction the seats would go, and it could lose one or gain one. He would be left with between 27 and 29 attorneys.
This is not a good result for the PSOE, taking into account that it could have obtained much more profitability from the fire crisis that occurred this summer. In fact, the national leaders demonstrated that a lot was at stake there with their cross reproaches. And these types of catastrophes tend to wear down those in charge of the institutions (just look at DANA and Carlos Mazón), but the socialists do not seem to be achieving it.
According to the survey, 5.5% of those who voted for the PSOE would now switch to the PP and 9.3% would abstain. This demobilization is general throughout the country, also in this autonomous community. The only thing that is saving Carlos Martínez is that he is managing to attract votes from the provincialist options and Unidas Podemos.
Union of the Leonese People (UPL), for example, increases slightly in voting intention, but remains the same in seats. It goes from 4.3% to 5% and remains in three attorneys. This is because it gains voters from the PSOE (an exchange is taking place between the two), from Unidas Podemos (1.6% of its old voters) and from new voters (3.4%).
However, Soria Ya! He is not managing to retain their votes. This option, integrated within España Vaciada, only retains 52.6% of its former voters. They are hurt by abstention (21.1%, very high) and by the PSOE (steals 10.5%). This means that it falls to 1.1% in voting intention and has only one attorney.
That parliamentarian seems to be won by Unidas Podemos, which grows one seat thanks to a 1.8% increase in the votes. But although it is a positive balance, it actually tastes like little. This so-called left to the left of the PSOE is not working well in the autonomous communities and this survey is an example of this. In 2015, Podemos won 10 seats, but there is nothing left of that. Furthermore, Castilla y León is a sensitive place for the purples, because their leader is Pablo Fernandezone of the spokespersons for the training at the national level.