The Easter week 2026 will start with weather more typical of winter than spring and will be marked by temperatures below normal for those dates and a notable increased instability in much of the countryaccording to advanced predictions this Monday by Samuel Biener, from the Meteored portal.
During the first few days, especially between Thursday before and Palm Sundaya cold air mass will affect large areas of the peninsula, leaving thermal values between 1 and 3 degrees lower to the usual average for early April. This situation could even leave snowfall in mountainous areas.
Temperature contrasts depending on the region
However, not all areas will be affected equally. The west of the peninsula will be partially left out of this situation due to the influence of an anticyclone that will favor the entry of warmer winds, which will allow milder and even slightly higher temperatures to average at times.
Despite the cold start, daytime temperatures will generally be mild in many areas, especially in the south, while nights will continue to be cool or cold in the interior.
A time marked by variability
From Meteored they summarize the scenario as an Easter “marked by variability and instability”, something common in spring. The evolution of the weather will be conditioned by an anticyclone located to the northwest of the peninsula, which will dominate especially in the north and west.
However, meteorological models contemplate the possibility of drops of cold air at altitude that could lead to the formation of danas in the Mediterranean, which would increase instability in areas such as the Balearic Islands, the Mediterranean slope and the Cantabrian coast.
In Canary Islandsthe situation presents greater uncertainty. If the anticyclone remains strong, a regime of trade winds with temperatures somewhat lower than normal will predominate. On the other hand, if cold air drops occur, instability could also increase in the archipelago.
Palm Sunday with rain in these areas
Looking ahead to Palm Sunday, Precipitation could be concentrated mainly in the Cantabrian mountain range, the Pyrenees and the north of the Iberian system, although more dispersed showers are not ruled out in the Mediterranean area.
From there, the models handle two scenarios: one more stable from the beginning of the week and another with greater prominence of a dana that would leave rain in the east of the peninsula, the Balearic Islands and even the Canary Islands starting on Holy Wednesday.
The role of the polar vortex
Experts have also highlighted the role of weakening of the polar vortexafter several sudden stratospheric warmings this winter, as one of the factors that explain the current atmospheric dynamics. This context favors more variable weather, with storms and episodes of instability that could last throughout the spring.
Likewise, they have stressed that, although the danas They are usually associated with autumn, but they can also be relevant in spring due to the strong contrast between cold air at altitude and warming at the surface. These are also phenomena that are difficult to predict accurately, which adds uncertainty to the forecast.