The partners of Peter Sanchezshare the forecast that in this second term of the coalition Only some General State Budgets will be approved (PGE), and as long as Pedro Sánchez yield in the requirements of maximums that the pro-independence parties are putting on the table. Within the dog-eat-dog competition in which ERC and Junts are already involved, such as heating of the next catalan elections.
If there are only some Budgets, There is only one opportunity to “squeeze” the Government for the investiture program to be executed, and this makes the negotiation drift even more towards a Persian market, with higher prices than those that already existed in the previous budget negotiations, and in which independentists and nationalists will not mince words because they are saying that “They will not have another opportunity like this” to pressure the Government.
Moncloa is also urged to the amnesty will be approved definitely in Congress coincidingpredictably, with the European elections, which will do more damage to the brand, no matter how much we have been talking about it for months. Junts and ERC will not miss the opportunity to turn this campaign into a fireworks show, and even more so if it becomes possible for Carles Puigdemont sets foot in Girona againin a massive reception, which is what he has always wanted.
The problem of wear of the amnesty is worsened by the budget negotiation in between given the scope of the demands that Junts and ERC will place on the table, and the difficulties what will put Can to be noticed in front of Sumar. This explains that within the Government there is a sector what is supporter of letting time pass and not assume new wear and tear now. Continue with the extension of the Budgets of the 24and enter fully into summer in the negotiation of those of 25putting all the resources, and all the necessary concessions, at the service of these accounts moving forward because they will be the two year life insurance for the coalition government. In day to day “will be horrible”with very heavy wear, according to the x-ray they take, for example, in the PNV from a pragmatism that is scarce in other forces.
This script can get complicated One day to another depending on what happens with the “Koldo case” because information has begun to reach some partners that despite the fact that this scandal “It's going to be very ugly”although “there is no court case yet” that forces them to stop looking the other way.
The referendum is the great prey that ERC and Junts are fighting over in terms of their Catalan elections
The calendar is truly diabolical because to this explosive cocktail we must add the basque elections. There are those who say that the “Koldo case” can work in favor of the PNV for taking disenchanted vote of the socialistsbut nationalists are more inclined to think that this disaffected vote is more likely than ended up staying at home. The surveys of recent days have coincided in pointing to a possible victory for Bildu in the April 21 elections, with a couple of seats above the PNV. However, they trust turn this demoscopic image around in the weeks that remain until the electoral exam, but for that they need to be able to excite and mobilize to a representative bag of traditionally his voter and who is tempted, according to the polls, to stay at home in this electoral event.
Sánchez's willingness to remain in Moncloa is indisputable, even if on a day-to-day basis living in Moncloa becomes an ordeal. But there are so many loose factors, that does not directly control Moncloathat it is impossible to cover the feeling of instability.
For example, in the face of budget negotiations, Together and ERC competeto see who can advance the most in what it means to remove Catalonia from the common regime model to have a singular and differentiated treatmentthe pact fiscal in the manner of the Basque concert or the gauging Navarrese, which recognizes the Spanish Constitution.
Investments and transfers, although they privilege Catalonia, are not at all profitable for Junts as it is not in the government of the Generalitat. Therefore, they have to go beyond those measures that ERC can use as a government party. Together It has to be asserted for tangible issues, but also for the flag of self-determination referendum. ERC has already clearly entered there, in what for the moment is a dialectical battle to see who claims most firmly to advance in the definition of the consultation.
Within the Government there are those who believe that it is better to leave the negotiation for the PGE of 25
Yesterday ERC said it very clearly again, insisting that the amnesty opens a new phase in which to agree on a referendum in Catalonia. The same mantra that Carles Puigdemont uses. And the same response from Moncloa for both cases, saying that it is rhetoric directed at their respective parishes, when, in reality, supposedly none of these two independence parties can afford the luxury of do not support Sánchez's Budgets.
The Basque elections are an element of distortion, which will generate tensions in the relations between the PSOE and the PNV, whatever the degree of dependence that the polls ultimately dictate. But even more serious will be the distortion caused by the simple threat that the elections in Catalonia are approaching. Puigdemont wants to get his revenge and recover the Presidency of the Generalitat,and to do so he needs to sink the PSC and his reference, former minister Salvador Illa, the lifeline that Sánchez has clung to to surf the storm of the amnesty.
The escaped former president is playing both hands. On the one hand, in the political field, he wants to lead the PSOE to positions at the national level that dislodge Illa in his autonomous speech. On the other hand, they are looking for information that could wear down the leader of the Catalan socialists due to the mask case. They know that for Sánchez the former minister is the letter with which to justify that the reconciliation process that derives from the amnesty is something more than a political agreement arising from the need for the seven Junts votes in the investiture.