On May 17, in just a month and a half, elections will be held in Andalusia. This is the most important race to date in the current electoral cycle and, according to the NC Report survey prepared for LA RAZÓN, everything indicates that it will be resolved in favor of the PP. The survey indicates that the current president of the Board, Juanma Morenowill be able to maintain the absolute majority that it enjoys right now.
That the Popular Party is going to be the party with the most votes is beyond any doubt, however they do play with the expectations of remaining above that majority, located at 55 seats. And although the truth is that it is not easy at all, according to the survey, Moreno would obtain 57 seats in the elections, two above the threshold. Of course, he loses one deputy compared to the previous elections, those of June 2022, despite gaining 0.4% of voting intention.
The one who would not meet expectations is her socialist opponent, the former vice president of the Government Maria Jesus Montero. She would obtain 28 seats, two less than the 30 that her predecessor won at the head of the Andalusian PSOE, Juan Espadas. If already then in 2022 the PSOE achieved its worst historical result, Montero’s presence as a candidate will not have even served to maintain that ground. This would be a major defeat for Pedro Sanchezwho would have sacrificed his right hand in the Executive and in the party for nothing.
Vox, for its part, becomes the party that grows the most in both seats and voting intentions. It goes from 13.3% in 2022 to 14.9% in the survey, which allows it to increase from 14 to 16 deputies, two more. Although it is a major improvement compared to the other formations, it is very timid compared to itself. In the previous elections that have been held this cycle, Vox has either doubled its results or remained close to 20% of the vote. Here the strength of Juanma Moreno serves as a stopper for Santiago Abascal’s party and does not achieve either of the two things.
As for the left outside the PSOE, the great beneficiary is Por Andalucía. It is the coalition of Izquierda Unida and Sumar, headed by Antonio Maíllowhich would go from five seats in 2022 to six now, one that it wins thanks to growing 0.8% of the vote. Adelante Andalucía, Teresa Rodríguez’s party, would keep the same two seats it has now, although it grows and goes from 4.5% of the vote to 5.7%.
Although it is still not entirely clear whether Podemos will compete in the Andalusian elections separately or will be integrated into Por Andalucía, at the moment the most plausible scenario is that of division. This is how it has been represented in the poll, which gives it only 0.9% of the vote and it would not obtain any seats. These data show that their potential voters are going to Por Andalucía or Adelante Andalucía.
In these elections, Se Acabó la Fiesta, the party of ultra agitator Alvise Pérez, will also be presented, which would also obtain 0.9% of the votes and would not obtain representation. Pérez tried to pressure PP and Vox not to run for more elections, but neither party played along. Now, the truth is that it does not have much impact at a general level, although we will have to see if these votes harm Vox when it comes to getting some more seats.
Analyzing in greater detail, the survey contains some very interesting keys at a political level. One of them is that Juanma Moreno continues to be capable of retaining the political center. His candidacy is, of the main ones, the one with the most loyal voters (88.5% of those who voted for him in 2022 would vote for him again now, a very high ratio) and, furthermore, he is being able to attract voters from other parties as diverse as PSOE and Vox. And the curious thing is that it does so in very similar proportions.
6.8% of those who voted for Vox in 2022 would now go to the PP, and 5.3% of those who voted for the PSOE would do so. This suggests that Moreno’s character, far from the general tension that has taken over Spanish politics, works for him at the electoral level in Andalusia.
Furthermore, it makes the PP be the favorite game of young people. 12.9% of those aged between 18 and 29 would vote for Moreno. It is the second option after abstention (52.3%) and breaks a dynamic, since in the previous elections of this cycle it had been seen how Vox was the party most voted for by these young people.
As for the PSOEMaría Jesús Montero has a very clear objective: to try to mobilize her potential voters, make them leave home and vote for her. This, demobilization, is a problem that is affecting the PSOE in general, but in Andalusia we must also add the flight of votes to the PP. That is why it is so important to motivate your people.
But the survey suggests that this is not happening. 82% would repeat their vote, the lowest figure of the three main parties, and 7.7% of those who voted for the PSOE in 2022 would now abstain, thus exacerbating a problem that the party already suffered in the previous elections. Only 1.2% of those who then voted for the PP would now join the socialist team.
What is serving to cushion the fall of María Jesús Montero It is a small concentration of useful votes from the left around the PSOE. Although Por Andalucía is growing, 10.6% of those who opted for this option in 2022 would now go to the PSOE. However, the coalition led by Maíllo maintains the type because it is capable of attracting the Podemos vote and 13.8% of new voters and people who had abstained in the previous elections.