After eleven days of total offensive in Lebanon that have caused significant damage to Hezbollah’s military infrastructure and beheaded the organization with the assassination of its secretary general, Hasan Nasrallahand with the prospect of an upcoming land incursion into the south of the Levantine country, all eyes are currently on the Islamic Republic of Iran: will the mullahs’ regime move from words to actions? Will it dare to launch a direct attack on Israel to avenge the damage suffered by its main “proxy” force in the Middle East? Will he risk opening a war front with his archenemy? What if I hit Israel first?
Until now, a day after the Lebanese militia confirmed the death of its leader of the last 32 years, and after eleven days of bombing in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley and the organization’s stronghold south of Beirut , the Iranian authorities have limited themselves to verbal condemnation and threats. The Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khameneicalled on Muslims on Saturday “to stand by the people of Lebanon and the proud Hezbollah with all available means and help them confront the evil regime (of Israel).”
The last one to intervene publicly was Abbas AraghchiForeign Minister of the Islamic Republic, but not to condemn the elimination of Nasrallah, but that of the general of the Revolutionary Guard Abbas Nilforushandied in the same bombing in the Lebanese capital along with the secretary general of Hezbollah, ensuring that “this horrible crime of the aggressor Zionist regime will not go unanswered.” However, the head of Iranian diplomacy specified on Sunday that “the diplomatic system will use all political, diplomatic, legal and international capabilities to prosecute criminals and their supporters,” in statements reported by the IRNA agency.
For his part, the vice president of Strategic Affairs and former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif He asserted that the response “will come at the right time and in accordance with Iran’s choice.” The regime issued a similar warning after the assassination in Tehran of the leader of the Hamas political office, Ismail Haniyeh, on July 31.
What has happened in the last two months suggests that prudence guides the conduct of a political regime that has completed 45 years of life, not exempt from domestic and external problems and that has its long-term survival as a priority. And in which conservative and moderate sectors confront each other, led by the new president Masud Pezeshkian.
“Iran is not going to do anything spectacular or get into any direct war with Israel,” the professor at the Faculty of Persian Literature and Foreign Languages at Allameh Tabataba’i University in Tehran told LA RAZÓN. Raffaele Mauriello. «We must understand that Iran’s strategy is long-term. It has seen the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq and the departure of NATO from Afghanistan and has improved its relations with Saudi Arabia. Iran’s main objective is for the United States to leave the region, and then for Israel to collapse. “It is strategic patience,” the specialist in Iranian issues explains to this medium.
“On the one hand, Israel takes advantage of the Islamic Republic’s caution now that the reformists are in government and, on the other, with its pressure to provoke them because it needs their reaction to be able to justify its narrative of demonization of Iran,” says the professor. from Allameh Tabataba’i University in Tehran. For the moment, Tehran “will continue to support Hezbollah for its regrouping,” according to Mauriello, who does not doubt that the organization, “deeply articulated” and with strong roots in Lebanese society, “a State in the absence of the State,” is not in danger. after the latest Israeli coups.
In the opinion of the Spanish-Iranian analyst Daniel Bashandeh«Iran has less and less room for maneuver to respond with an attack. Israel’s strategy has seriously weakened the Axis of Resistance by eliminating the leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and carrying out operations in Iranian territory. Iran will not make moves that endanger its survival. “Any military action could end up weakening their power in Iran.”
«The regime has serious continuity problems, and a fundamental reason is that the revolutionary cause is not the cause of the Iranian population. Now the Iranian leadership is in the spotlight and the Islamic Republic lacks leadership with credibility and popular support to provide continuity to the political system. “Israel has proven to be capable of locating the leaders and puts Khamenei’s leadership on alert: Iran’s non-response could be a pretext for Israel to continue operations against Iranian authorities,” Bashandeh told LA RAZÓN.
In his speech to the United Nations General Assembly, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu He addressed, as on other occasions, the “brave Iranian people, who want to get rid of this evil regime.” «The latest Israeli operation will force the other States in the region to position themselves: either with Israel and its operations against the Axis of Resistance or with the Islamic Republic. For Netanyahu, it is an opportunity to extend any two-state solution and move forward with his political agenda: to condition the international community against the threat that Iran poses to regional stability,” asserts the Spanish-Iranian analyst.
Another of the big questions in the air at the moment is whether the Israeli offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon and other forces aligned with Tehran – yesterday Tel Aviv also hit the Yemeni port of Hodeida, in the hands of the Houthis – will jeopardize eventual nuclear negotiations with USA. «What happened will hinder the Islamic Republic’s plans to outline a new policy of rapprochement with key countries, starting with the United States. “Israel will pressure not to ease sanctions or normalize relations and to focus on the nuclear threat,” predicts Bashandeh.