Alberto Núñez Feijóo He has an opportunity for the next elections: he can grow at Vox. And it can grow a lot. But for this you will have to pay attention to a very specific part of the voters of Santiago Abascal.
According to an NC Report analysis for reason, the PP has a margin of growth in the most right Vox electorate. This is, mainly, people under 45 and with concerns such as housing, immigration, health or employment. In addition, you can always complement your strategy with the useful vote, with the shared objective of throwing Pedro Sánchez of the government. With those duties done, it will go up.
The NC Report analysis shows that the PP has taken over a large part of the ideological spectrum, from the right-right to the center-left. On the contrary, the PSOE, radicalized, is being cornered in the left to the left and is absent in the center-center, where the PP already monopolizes 64.8% of that center vote. Vox, meanwhile, resists among the most radical rights of rights.
Analyzing the electorates of the PP and Vox, we conclude that they share great similarities.
The PP has 3.8 million voters located in the center-center. Vox, one million. In the center-right, those of Feijóo have 2.6 million and Vox with 1.2 million. In the right-right, the popular receive 1.5 million voters and Vox 1.4. This means that Both parties are currently overlapping in all ideological segments.
The voter of the PP has more tendency to the political center, since 45.1% is considered central-centro, compared to 27% of Vox. Abascal voters, on the other hand, have greater implementation in the right-right, since 38.8% of them are self-submitted at the most right-wing end, compared to 17.9% of those of the PP. In the temperate area, in the center-right, there is more balance, since 30.9% of the popular voter is in this position, as well as 33.4% of the Vox electorate.
The fracture within the right, as between the left, occurred in the 2015 elections. The PP then lost its absolute majority of 2011 and its electorate was reduced to 7.2 million voters, because of part of the entrance of Citizens, which accumulated 3.5 million votes. On the other hand, the PSOE was about to suffer the advancement of Podemos; 5.5 million votes compared to 5.2 million. With those elections, it was clear that bipartisanship had come to an end.
The 2016 and 2019 elections were not better for the PP and accentuated their crisis, adding less votes than Vox and Citizens together. It would be necessary to wait until those of 2023 to produce a resurgence of the PP, causing citizens to disappear and vox fall to 3.1 million votes. On the left, that same year, we find a similar scenario: the PSOE rebounds and unmarked, 7.8 million votes against three million.
Grow more
In response to the ideology of voters, we see that the PP expands from the most extreme area on the right, to the center-left. Cup 64.8% of the entire center-center vote, 57% of the center-right vote and 48% of the right-right electorate. Vox, on the other hand, works backwards: it decreases towards the centerwith 45.2% of the right-right vote, 26.8% of the center-right and 16.9% of the center-center.
The reconquest of the PP of hegemony on the right goes essentially to reduce the strength of Vox between the electorate more to the right, which on a scale of 0 to 10, being 10 the extreme right, are placed between 9 and 10. In this fork, there are 3,176,000 voters, of which 1,524,000 vote at the PP and 1,437,000 to Vox. And it is among the voters from 18 to 29 years and from 30 to 45 years that the most radical vox vote is concentrated.
The secondary objective would be to conquer the following segment, that of the center-right, which integrates 4,631,000 voters. Of these, 2,630,000 are from the PP and 1,234,683 of Vox. The age profile of the Abascal voter in this group is mostly 30 to 45 years. Finally, where the PP devastates is in the center-center, with 3,832,000 voters, compared to a million Vox, which is concentrated between those over 44.
Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s centrist turn has left a bag of 1.4 million right-right voters in the hands of Santiago Abascal’s party. To stop the vote transfer from his party to the most extreme, the PP leader must seek solutions that are imposed on the proposals for the extreme right in matters such as housing, immigration, safety, health and quality of employment. These are the great concerns among children under 45.
He would also play in favor of the popular who manage to rejuvenate their visible faces – something they are doing with more or less success – and use a language that serves to transfer their messages to the younger voters on the right.
However, seen the background, everything indicates that we will have to wait for the arrival of Feijóo to the Moncloa so that citizens see, in a reliable way, that Vox is not essential. This is what happened in Andalusia in 2022, when Juanma Moreno He reached the absolute majority, and in Madrid in 2023, where the same thing happened with Isabel Díaz Ayuso. In both cases, Vox was decisive for their respective investiture of 2018 and 2021 and, a legislature later, the PP became hegemonic.
Which should not stop watching in the sum of seats between PP and Vox for the next general elections. Today the barrier of 176 seats would be overcome. Abascal’s contribution to the new parliamentary majority would be 50 seats and that of the PP of 155. But when the common objective is to evict Sanchez, Vox voters should be explained that, being the third force, the law d’hondt punishes them. They need 75,000 votes to obtain a deputy, when the PP can take it out with 55,000 ballots. In addition, in a third of Vox constituencies would not reach the minimum to obtain a deputy. This are votes that will be lost.