The mourning for the death of Pope Francis at age 88 on Monday opened the doors only one day later to the most varied hypotheses about his possible successor. The quiniela with the possible “papable” candidates is as wide as it is uncertain.
The only sure thing is that the next conclave will have for the first time representatives of all corners of the world and not only in Europe or the US, two regions that continue to concentrate, however, the greatest number of voter cardinals and that they will press so that the new leader of the Catholic Church is once again a western one.
Throughout his 12 years of papacy, Francisco designed a new ecclesial geopolitics and left as an inheritance one of the most numerous and heterogeneous cardinal schools in history, composed of almost 80% of glitters named by him. The Pontiff reduced the presence of Europeans in favor of the rest of the continents, especially the Asian, with 25 glimpsed, but also increasing the weight of Africa with 18 cardinals. There will be 24 Latin American cardinals possible voters compared to 55 Europeans. Spain is the third country in number of members of the Cardenalicio College, with 10 purpurated, but only six are voters.
In the last town hall he celebrated in December, Francisco created 21 new cardinals and took another step to strengthen his legacy in the group of prelates that will choose his successor, with hope perhaps that the future leader of the Catholic Church continues the reforms. One of the most representative candidates of this current is Cardinal Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, Archbishop of Manila and Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of the Peoples.
In total, the Cardenalicio College is made up of 252 members of which 133 are under 80 years of age and therefore will enter the Sistine Chapel to choose the next bishop in Rome. The result is an assembly of bishops more international than ever, Away from the centers of power, with purple from 94 countries. One of the novelties of the next conclave is that Cardinals will participate from corners of the world so far without representation or where Christianity is practiced by a minority such as Mongolia, Lesoto, Iran or Algeria. It will be a conclave, in addition, with an average age of 69 years and a profile very similar to that of Francisco.
That does not imply that the next Pope is a progressive or that the reforms promoted continue by the Argentine pontiff. Among other things, because the 110 voters designated by Pope Francis do not represent at all a homogeneous group and some are practically not known. Without going any further, Benedict XVI was chosen in 2005 despite not having received the Birreta Cardenalicia from John Paul II. And Francisco was elected in 2013 by an assembly of bishops that in theory was the most conservative that was remembered in decades having been mostly appointed during the two previous pontificates.
Italy aspires to recover the papacy and with 19 cardinals voters It is still the largest group of the future conclave. And that despite the fact that its weight has decreased over the years. Rome also has three relevant “daddables”: the Secretary of State and head of the Vatican diplomacy, Pietro Parolin; the president of the Italian Episcopal Conference, Matteo Zuppi; and the Franciscan and current Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Pististista Pizzaballa. The sensation in the transalpine country is that the time has come for an Italian to sit on the throne of San Pedro.
He would not surely dislike the current Giorgia Meloni government and especially his vice president, Matteo Salvini. The leader of the League, who today cries disconsolate the disappearance of the Argentine pontiff, faced Francisco during his stage at the head of the Interior Ministry between 2018 and 2019 in which he promoted a migration policy of closed ports. “My Pope is Benedict,” defends the current Minister of Infrastructures and Transportation of Meloni.
Out of Italy, the conservatives look at Hungary and in the US, the second country most represented with 17 marinated, the cardinals facing Donald Trump will perhaps try to choose an American who can become the nemesis of the white house tenant. However, Some experts warn that there is a Catholicism in the US that has been completely aligned with “Trumpism.” “My fear is that there may be an organized campaign to support or damage certain candidates who are not pleasant to American Catholicism,” says the historian of the church and professor at the Villanova University of Philadelphia Massimo Faggioli.
In any case, when the master of pontifical liturgical ceremonies, the Italian priest Diego Giovanni Ravelli, pronounce the Latin words “extra omnes” (all) and close the doors of the Sistine chapel, the maneuvers to choose one or another candidate- conservatives or progressive, European or African, etc.- They will serve for little. Within the 135 voters will be isolated from the world, praying and voting in secret, until they choose Francisco’s successor.