Climate change will reduce the per capita income of Spain by almost 18% in less than 25 years, according to the study ‘Physical threats of climate change and its social impact on Spain’ prepared by Fundación Naturgy and PWC Foundation, in collaboration with Cross Red economy.
This document states that climate change will affect the quality of life of Spanish society, aggravating existing problems and especially affecting vulnerable social groups with less adaptation capacity.
Climate change is a reality that is being manifested through multiple effects, such as the increase in extreme weathering phenomena, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, the thaw of the poles or the changes in ecosystems.
“This report addresses the urgent need to make visible the direct impact of climate change on the well -being and quality of life of Spanish society. We not only talk about an environmental problem, climate change is already affecting, relevantly, the life of people. An impact that will be aggravated in the coming years if we do not get a strategic response both global and nationally,” says Ana Merino de PWC.
In the same line, Rafael Villaseca, president of the Naturgy Foundation, “the fight against climate change is a challenge of enormous magnitude, of a global, but with local impacts. Identify what are the climatic variables affected in each place, as well as the physical threats that these changes may imply, it is a necessary starting point to address these challenges in the best conditions.”
Climatic migrations
With regard to demography and, according to this report, climate change increases the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, which will cause forced displacements of the affected populations. These extreme events represent direct threats to life and security, promoting people to migrate to ensure their survival and livelihoods.
Specifically, the regions of southern Europe, which already face high fire risks, will be especially affected, with a particularly severe impact in Spain. In a 3ºC scenario, it is estimated that Spain would experience 40 additional days per year with high to end fire. In WL Report it is estimated that the number of people exposed to at least 10 days of extreme fire danger per year in Europe will increase from 63 million to 78 million with a global heating of 3 ° C, which represents an annual increase of 24%.
Internal migration for climatic reasons is intended to increase in all regions and countries of the world. By 2050, without concrete actions in climate change and development, this phenomenon could lead to more than 216 million people in 6 regions migrating within their own countries.
Elena Pita, general director of the Spanish Office of Climate Change (OECC) highlights the value of this report for its important focus on the social. “We need to assess the physical impact of climate change to know its consequences on the economy, health or quality of life so that this leads us to action. Inaction is a luxury that we cannot afford.”
Poverty and health
The report authors point out that climate change affects inequality, increasing poverty, reducing access to energy services and reducing both food and water resources. By 2050, summer overheating is expected to worsen considerably in the Mediterranean region, which will increase the need for cooling, especially in southern Spain, thus increasing the risk of energy poverty.
In addition, water scarcity will affect more than 22 million people in the country, aggravating the water crisis and agricultural production. Key crops such as corn could experience performance reductions greater than 80% without adequate irrigation.
The document also underlines the impact of climate change on human health. By 2050, there could be 14.5 million additional deaths in the world due to its effects. In Europe, it is projected that heat wave deaths could reach up to 300,000 a year, with Spain being one of the most affected countries.
Therefore, Pablo Navajo, Director of the Environment of the Spanish Red Cross, also points out its importance «If we are not able to address with equity and justice the Climate changewhat we will be doing is increase social inequalities ».
Losses of economic value
According to the report, the economic landscape will also be clearly affected, if the objectives of the Paris Agreement or the zero net emissions goals are not achieved by 2050, the world could lose almost 10% of its total economic value for the middle of the century. In fact, they estimate that an increase of 2.2 ° C by 2050 could decrease global GDP by 20%, and an increase of up to 5 ° C for 2100 would lead to economic devastation.
Specifically in Spain, it is projected that future heat waves could reduce GDP by 2% and 3% (2040 and 2050, respectively). On the contrary, other researchers estimate a 19% decrease in per capita income worldwide and 17.8% in Spain by 2049, regardless of future emissions decisions. At the regional level, Extremadura will be the most affected community, with a 21.5% reduction in per capita income, followed by Andalusia with 20.3% and the Community of Madrid with 19.9%.
These figures and percentages serve as a warning: although at the moment they are forecasts, if not taken measures they could soon become realities. A possibility that, for Lara Lázaro, principal researcher at the Royal Elcano Institute, worries up to 69% of Spaniards, although “citizens perceive that Spain is not doing enough to reduce or adapt to climate change.”