Hypersonic missiles have become one of the great strategic obsessions of the 21st century. The United States, China, Russia, India and several other countries are competing to master a technology that promises to change the rules of modern warfare. There is talk of France, North Korea and Iran as other potential developers of this technology.
Now, a group of Chinese scientists has reignited the debate. According to an analysis cited by international media, current US missile defense systems could have great difficulty in intercept certain hypersonic missiles, especially if they combine extreme speed, maneuverability and unpredictable trajectories.
The study published in Tactical Missile Technology, led by Liao Longwen, suggests that this combination could allow some missiles, including those developed by Iran, to penetrate advanced defensive systems. Is this threat realistic? A missile is considered hypersonic when it flies at more than five times the speed of sound (Mach 5). At these speeds, greater than 6,000 km/h, intercepting it becomes extremely difficult.
However, what really sets many modern hypersonic missiles apart is not just speed, but two key characteristics: their mid-flight maneuverability and low, changing trajectories. “Existing US missile defenses can, in theory, intercept some hypersonic weapons in their final stage, but “The high speed, maneuverability and stealth make it very difficult.”says the study.
Traditional ballistic missiles follow relatively predictable trajectories, like an arc that rises into space and then falls toward the target. Instead, many hypersonic systems use what are known as hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs).: after being launched by a rocket, they glide within the atmosphere performing unpredictable maneuvers.
This reduces the reaction time of defense systems and complicates the interception calculation. According to the Longwen team, Western defense systems such as Patriot, Aegis or THAAD, They were designed primarily to intercept classic ballistic missiles. Thus, hypersonic missiles present three problems for these systems: their speed is extreme, they have high-capacity maneuverability and their trajectories are lower.
Interest in this debate has increased because Iran has claimed in recent years to have developed its own hypersonic missiles. One of the most cited is Fattah-1, presented in 2023 by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. According to Tehran, the missile could reach speeds of Mach 13 to Mach 15 and perform maneuvers to evade anti-missile defenses. Iran later announced an improved model, the Fattah-2, which would incorporate a hypersonic glider vehicle designed to increase maneuverability during the final phase of the attack.
Does this mean that Iranian missiles are capable of penetrating American defenses? The answer is not black or white. Hypersonic missiles do represent a serious challenge to missile defense. In fact, The United States is developing new specific systems to confront them, such as interceptors capable of attacking the missile during its glide phase.
However, that doesn’t mean they are impossible to intercept. The Chinese study recognizes that improving radar networks, space sensors and early warning systems could significantly increase detection and interception capabilities. Furthermore, modern defenses work in layers: ground-based radars, satellites, naval interceptors, anti-missile batteries and electronic warfare systems work together. Conclusion? The threat is real, but not as close as some point out.