The latest CIS survey, without distribution of seats, encourages the possibilities of a “Sorpasso” from Bildu to the PNV in the Basque Country, although with one in five undecided voters about the final decision he will make at the polls. The Basque campaign is approaching the equator, and some of the apriorisms on which it is based are increasingly limping a little more, to the point that Bildu has already begun “exploratory maneuvers” in the PSOE to try to form a government if they prevail. to the PNV at the polls.
All messages, and even surveys, have a clear component of strategic interest or modulation of the emotional state of voters. The PNV is interested in growing the feeling that the elections are not resolved to mobilize a much more well-off voter than that of the nationalist left, where the expectation of change is acting as a driving force so that no one stays at home.
But the trackings, beyond the interested party manipulations, say what they say, and agree in confirming that The campaign is going well with the heirs of Batasuna in a social space where during this first week of official fight for the vote everything has been occupied by the euphoria unleashed by Athletic's victory in the Copa del Rey and its popular and massive celebration in Bilbao, which concludes with today's events at the Biscay capital.
The Abertzales have been growing in their confidence and this is leading them to unofficially spread the message that, if they win in the elections, they are obliged to their parish to determine the future government of Ajuria Enea because their voters would not understand, and it would even have its cost in future elections, that they bow to the pact of the PNV with the PSE and, furthermore, in exchange for continuing to support Pedro Sánchez in Madrid. There are issues that outside the Basque Country are established as absolute truths, but that are read from a mental structure that has little to do with the terrain on which nationalists walk.
The speed with which the ETA prisoners leave is important, but this exit to the streets is amortized by the voters who today look at the Bildu acronym. It is a nationalist-independence left, which is committed to the Navarrese path, and which, along with the progressive program, also identifies with the need for move forward, without making the Catalan mistakes, towards the national recognition of Euskal Herria.
His voters would not understand that he bowed to the PNV pact with the PSE
It cannot be overlooked that constitutionalism has a minority position in the Basque Country, without signs being observed in these elections that lead one to think of a change in trend. Bildu has different channels with the PSOE, and has already begun to explore some of them with conversations below the official level. The obligatory route would be Santos Cerdán, secretary of the Socialist Organization, but the messages are being transferred through other channels due to the precautions required by the campaign time.
It is a reality that Socialists have a network of agreements with the PNV that goes beyond the stability of Ajuria Enea and in the Congress of Deputies, and breaking down that scaffolding is an added problem to a political context in which Moncloa has too many open fronts. But it will be the polls that will determine whether the PSOE is really in a position to avoid one more problem with the Basque result, since if Bildu prevails over the PNV, and it does so with a notable difference, The mantra that those from Bildu don't care about governing and are only interested in their still imprisoned ETA members will fall under its own weight.
We must also see to what extent the failure of the socialists and popular to nationalize the campaign influences the polls, since the messages that their Madrid leaders are leaving there are having a very small effect and, of course, diluted within the pulse that PNV and Bildu maintain, the closest in history. Bildu is winning the hand over the othersbecauseAs surprising as it may seem from Madrid, there is the most transversal party. They have managed the end of ETA with such skill on two levels, the organic level and the use of the institutions, that they have managed to cover themselves with a patina of modern and progressive formation that, in a certain way, in demographic analyzes is compared with the effect of the BNG in the last Galician elections.
The latest NC Report study published by this newspaper confirmed that the Abertzales are receiving voters from the PNV, from the nationalist right – up to 7.1 percent of those who gave them their support in the last elections assure today that their ballot is for the nationalist candidate. But they are being capable of also absorbing all the left-wing voters on the flank of Podemos and Sumar. An electoral base that cannot be told on the night of the count that “we have won, but we are not going to try to govern,” is heard saying in the Sortu area.