For a few months, The scientific community closely follows the tour of 2024 YR4an asteroid between 40 and 100 meters long that was detected in the vicinity of the Earth. As the studies and simulations of his career advanced, a possibility arose that ignited the alarms: according to the most recent calculations, there is a 1.3% probability that impacting our planet on December 22, 2032. Now, with data more precise, Experts identified what the most exposed regions of a possible impact would be.
With an estimated diameter of 61 meters and an impact possibility of 1.3 % (equivalent to 1 in 77), astronomers closely follow the path of asteroid 2024 YR4. As the data is updated and prediction models are perfected, Specialists seek to determine if a threat to Earth really involves in the coming years.
It should be noted that The asteroid 2024 YR4 It was classified with a “3 ″ qualification on the Turin scalea system that measures the probability of impact and the possible damage that an object close to the Earth could cause. This scale, which goes from 0 to 10, establishes that a value of 0 means that the object does not represent any danger, while A 3 indicates that the asteroid deserves attention due to its impact probability of more than 1%. At the highest end, a 10 indicates a safe collision with catastrophic consequences. It should be noted that most asteroids who approach the Earth are usually classified with a 2 or less, so the situation of 2024 YR4 generated a special interest in the scientific community.
The complete list of the areas where the asteroid could impact
Now, according to NASA, the Asteroid Risk Corridor 2024 YR4 It covers various regions of the planet, which aroused concern among experts. So it became known, areas with the greatest impact probability include:
- Eastern Pacific Ocean: An impact on this area could cause great magnitude tsunamis.
- North of South America: countries like Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador would be at risk if the asteroid impacts on the mainland.
- Atlantic Ocean: Similar to the Pacific, the impact on this area would generate large waves with possible effects in coastal areas.
- Africa: countries like Nigeria, Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of the Congo could be affected.
- Arabic sea: An impact on this area could have consequences for countries such as Oman, Pakistan and India.
- Southern Asia: India and Bangladesh regions are also within the possible impact area.
For now, Mexico is not within the main risk regions, although experts warn that the path of asteroid 2024 YR4 It could be modified in the coming years as more data is collected and the calculations are updated.
It is important to keep in mind that, since its detection on December 27, 2024, the asteroid 2024 YR4 It is the object of constant monitoring by astronomers, who seek to specify their career with greater accuracy. At the moment, It is 56 million kilometers from Earth, But the calculations indicate that its maximum approach will occur on December 22, 2032when it could be 106 kilometers from our planet, a margin that keeps the scientific community on alert.