Gonzalo Torrente Ballester (1910-1999), the great Spanish magical realistic-Gallego–, begins his fascinating “JB saga/escape” with the verse “we do not know, no, we do not know”, which begins the “incomplete ballad and probably apocryphal of the Holy illuminated body ».
We do not know, no, at least for now, how far Donald Trump will come With your announced Commercial Warand if really He will shoot his fusiThey will be artifice fires to obtain other objectives.
The new tenant of the White House and its disturbing environment, with Elon Musk at the head, scare, but will have reaction to their measures. The European Commission, which chairs Ursula von der Leyen, He avoids rushing, but if everything will continue to react to tariffs to aluminum and steel with others to certain American products.
The China of Xi Jinping has already started that path, with taxes to products USA between 10 and 15%, And we will have to see what Trump-Poutin relationships translate. It is not the end of globalization, much less, but is threatened, especially for the ignorance of some politicians.
The American president, however, does not have insured no success and it is even probable that it does not reach announced measures And even approved or, then, have to undo the way.
The consequences of the hardening of American commercial policy –A full -fledged commercial warfare– “They will move to other sectors such as construction and other branches of the industry, such as energy, aviation, technological products and even the food chain packaging industry,” says Alicia Coronil, chief economist of Singular Bank, in her last economic analysis.
Warns that the effects, in the US, will move to consumption prices, which are already upaccording to a preliminary survey of the University of Michigan. Means that the Federal Reserve (Fed), chaired by Jerome Powell, will have to delay new declines from interest rates.
In that case, the European Central Bank (ECB)say what your president Christine Lagarde and other members of the Council say, it cannot be “too free.” Deglobalization does not reach so much, much less, at least for now.
He Commercial Trumpism, on the other hand, can be an opportunity for Spainaccording to the social democratic economist José Carlos Díez. Defends that Spain has Recovered relative salary competitiveness In front of countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic, which went to European industrial production at the beginning of the century.
At the same time, the Average Spanish salary has moved away from Germany, France, Holland or Belgicto. He also argues that “the great competitive change for twenty years have been energy costs.”
All of the Central Europe is going through an energy crisis due to the cost of Russian gassomething that is very aggravated by strategic errors, such as Angela Merkel’s decision to close the German nuclear power plants, something that would later end up consuming the government of the still chancellor Olaf Scholz.
The Energy costs of the industry of central and east Europe have risen considerably in recent years. Meanwhile, in Spain «thanks to renewable energies – says Díez -, for the first time from the industrial revolution of the eighteenth century we have an E and an Eabundant nergía and cheaper than our European partners ».
He believes that it is a “unique opportunity” to boost industrial development and that if the appropriate measures are adopted before Trump tariffs, They could suppose an impulse for employment and an improvement of industrial wages in Spain.
It relies on the thesis of Jagdish Bhagwati, Indian-American economist, considered the most creative theorist of his generation on international trade, which has just published “in defense of globalization”, a title acclaimed by international criticism.
The opportunities, however, you have to take advantage of them when they arise and governments should not put sticks on the wheels of economic activity. Sánchez in particular I should, for example, stop stigmatizing private companiesas does the “vice” Yolanda Díaz, reduce or eliminate taxes on energy production, facilitate the development of renewables and, right now, Do not close the Almaraz nuclear power plantthat it would be to make the same mistake as Angela Merkel in her day, an example that Sara Aagesen should study, Vice Successor of Teresa Ribera, Antinuclear in Spain and tolerant in Europe.
All apart from Trump and his commercial rifle Because “we don’t know – what will do – we don’t know,” as Torrente Ballester would say.