Baku, Azerbaijan – Even as the Earth is setting new heat records, humanity will emit 300 million tons more carbon dioxide into the air this year from burning fossil fuels than last year.
This year, the world is on track to emit 37.4 billion tons of the main heat-trapping gas in the atmosphere. It is an increase of 0.8% compared to 2023, according to the Global Carbon Project, a group of scientists that tracks emissions. Various reports of the United Nations indicate that the world must reduce emissions by 42% by 2030 to possibly limit warming to an internationally agreed threshold.
This year’s pollution increase is not as big as last year’s 1.4% jump, scientists said when presenting the data at United Nations climate talks in Azerbaijan.
If the world continues burning fossil fuels at the current level, in six years it will exceed the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 ° Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, the limit agreed at the 2015 climate talks in Paris, said the study’s co-author. Stephen Sitch. The Earth is already at 1.3°C (2.3°F), according to the United Nations.
“We are clearly not doing enough on a global scale to reduce emissions. It’s that simple,” said study co-author Mike O’Sullivan, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter. “We need to be much more ambitious and just think creatively about how we can change things, not be so tied down to fossil fuel interests.”
The scientists used emissions reported by rich countries and data from the oil industry, O’Sullivan said. The 2024 figure includes projections for the last two months or more. The Global Carbon Project team published figures for the four largest carbon emitters: China, the United States, India and Europe. It also presented more detailed and final figures for about 200 countries by 2023.
The continued increase in carbon emissions comes mainly from the developing world and China. Many analysts expected that China, which accounts for 32% of carbon emissions, would have already reached its peak carbon dioxide emissions. In contrast, China’s emissions increased 0.2% compared to 2023, with pollution from burning coal increasing 0.3%, according to calculations by the Global Carbon Project. But it could fall to zero in the next two months and its growth is “basically flat,” O’Sullivan said.
That’s nowhere near the increase in India, which accounts for 8% of the world’s carbon pollution and is the third-largest carbon emitter. India’s carbon pollution rose 4.6% in 2024, scientists said.
Carbon emissions decreased in both the United States and the European Union. They fell 0.6% in the United States, mainly due to the reduction in the use of coal, oil and cement. The United States was responsible for 13% of the world’s carbon dioxide in 2024. Historically, it is responsible for 21% of global emissions since 1950, a figure that is relevant because the gas persists in the atmosphere for centuries.
Twenty-two nations have shown steady declines in emissions, O’Sullivan said. The largest emissions reductions from 2014 to 2023 were reported in the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and Ukraine.
Europe, which accounts for 7% of the world’s carbon pollution, saw carbon dioxide production drop 3.8% from last year, driven by a significant cut in emissions from burning coal.
Global carbon emissions are more than double what they were 50 years ago and 50% more than they were in 1999. Emissions have increased approximately 6% in the last decade.
“This is a necessary reminder of the urgency with which we need to address the cause of the climate crisis,” said Mohamed Adow, founder of PowerShift Africa, who was not part of the study. “The problem is that the fossil fuel industry is kicking and screaming for us to slow down and for them to keep their share of the business longer. That’s why they invested money in Donald Trump’s election campaign.”
Humanity’s burning of coal, oil, and natural gas generates nearly 1.2 million kilograms (2.6 million pounds) of CO2 every second.
Total carbon emissions, which include pollution from fossil fuels and land-use changes such as deforestation, are little changed because emissions from soils are declining, the scientists said. That’s an important and encouraging milestone amid the bad news, said Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania.