Salvador Illa has already taken office as president of the Generalitat and he has done so thanks to the essential support of Esquerra, which has obtained several concessions and the most important is fiscal sovereignty for Catalonia. The “Catalan quota” that the socialists and republicans have agreed has to go through Congress and it remains to be seen whether it ends up being approved since it implies that the Generalitat collects and manages all the taxes paid in Catalonia, which breaks the “common fund” and leaves the financial capacity of the rest of the autonomous regions up in the air. In any case, Regardless of whether it ends up being approved or not, it is clear that it has generated a lot of rejection among Spaniards, as evidenced by the latest NC Report survey for LA RAZÓN, which shows that 38.5% of PSOE voters are against the “Catalan quota.”
Overall, 67.7% of respondents are against it, while only 23.3% are in favour of fiscal sovereignty for Catalonia. But the high percentage of PSOE voters who are against it, as well as the 40% of Sumar voters, are striking: In fact, there has been a division in Yolanda Díaz’s party on this issue, as there have been many critical voices within the organisation, starting with the party’s economic chief, Carlos Martín. Compromís and Chunta Aragonesista have also been critical, and both forces have three seats, which could be almost transcendental in overthrowing the economic agreement.
The government is trying to disguise the fiscal agreement with Esquerra by claiming that there is a solidarity clause that will make Catalonia contribute to the finances of the other autonomous regions through a quota, which will be “known and recognised”. However, it remains to be seen what the scope will be, as it generates a lot of distrust even among the socialist barons.
In fact, the agreement between PSC and Esquerra includes more than just the fiscal pact, as it incorporates the protection of Catalan with measures such as vehicularity in education; the maintenance of “embassies” with the creation of a Foreign Action Corps; or, the promotion of Catalan sports teams. In this sense, 33.8% of PSOE voters reject the entire pact between PSC and ERC: what’s more, 45% of Sumar voters are also against it.
The socialist voter seems very critical of Sánchez and his first year of legislature, which ends on August 17, since 30.8% give a bad or very bad assessment. In the case of Sumar voters, that percentage rises to 35%, a significant figure that leaves Yolanda Díaz in a bad position in her fight with Podemos, since the purple party has been hardening its tone with the Government and trying to impose a critical vision.
In this sense, a very important period begins in the autumn: the Budgets, which have to be negotiated. Without the Budgets, the Government seems condemned to call elections since it would be the second consecutive year of postponing them. In fact, 50.5% of Sumar voters believe that Sánchez cannot govern if he fails to pass the Budget; 78% of PP voters and 91.6% of Vox voters also think this way, while in the PSOE this figure is reduced to 21.5%.
Without a Budget, should elections be called? Legally, there is no Law or jurisprudence that obliges the Government to do so, but it is true that More than half of respondents (51.9%) believe that elections should be called. Specifically, 24.6% of PSOE voters, 44% of Sumar voters, 67.1% of PP voters, and 92.4% of Vox voters think this way.
The approval of the Budget, in any case, will depend on the separatists, a dependence that the vast majority of those surveyed (66.3%) consider affects the stability of Spain. In fact, almost a third of PSOE voters (30.8%) and Sumar voters (34.7%) do. The truth is that the separatists will continue to push to obtain benefits from the dependence on the Government and it remains to be seen how far the demands of a Carles Puigdemont emboldened after having set foot in Spain without being arrested will go.
In addition to the approval of the Budgets to survive in Moncloa, Sánchez has another thorny issue pending in the coming months: the “Begoña Gómez case”In this regard, around 30% of PSOE and Sumar voters believe that the President of the Government should give explanations about the alleged case of corruption surrounding his wife.
In fact, the vast majority of those surveyed do not share Sánchez’s reaction to defend himself, which has been to use the State Attorney’s Office to file a complaint against Judge Peinado, who is investigating his wife. Specifically, 65.1% of those surveyed believe that Sánchez’s manoeuvre is an attack on judicial independence: in fact, 32.3% of PSOE voters think that way.
A large number of respondents (61.4%) also believe that Spain’s image abroad has worsened under the management of the Sánchez government, an executive that has had a series of diplomatic crises (Argentina, Israel…) and that, in the long run, could end up being expensive if Donald Trump wins the elections in November in the United States.