Autumn is already here. The equinox will occur on the afternoon of this Monday, September 22 and with the change of station what many Spaniards will ask What time will there be in this fall of 2025 in Spain. To answer that issue, the State Meteorology Agency (AEMET) has already published its usual seasonal prediction for the months of September to November 2025, although they are not the only specialists who have spoken.
The Aemet seasonal forecasts are not like newspapers. They are based on probabilistic models by thirds: that is, depending on the country area indicates the probability that during these months the climate will be more or less warm and more or less humid.
It will make more or less cold: the prognosis of the Aemet for autumn of 2025
In this way, the AEMET provides that the autumn of this 2025 be warmer than normal. In much of the northern thirds and this peninsular there are 70% probability that temperatures between September and November 2025 are higher than average registered in recent years. There is a 20% probability that temperatures are located in normal, and only 10% probability that temperatures are colder.
In other areas of the Peninsula, as is in the central plateau or in the southwest, it is also estimated that the temperatures are warmer of their own for this station. There is a 60% probability that the average temperatures is higher than that of other previous autumn. In the Canary Islands, finally, the panorama is more uncertain and the Aemet only says that there is a 50% chance that temperatures are higher, and 30% of the usual ones for these dates. In other words, eight out of ten possible scenarios for the archipelago indicate that temperatures could be or the usual or warmer.
Will it rain more or less? This says the Aemet for this autumn of 2025
The thirds that the Aemet applies for rainfall in its seasonal forecasts either Where and how it will rain throughout the countrybut they do draw three possible scenarios: that the station is more wet, that is “normal”, that is, that the usual rainfall of the last autumn is included, or that the station is drier.
This is where the Aemet divides the peninsula into two. On the one hand, the Cantabrian facade, Castilla y León, Madrid, Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura, and the practice of Andalusia is likely to see a drier autumn than usual. This does not mean that it will not rain: just that it will not rain as much as other autumn. Thus, it is in this area where it is expected that with a 45% probability the fall will be drier. Only 20% of the probabilities point to a more humid and rainy fall for these areas.
In the other half of the Peninsula uncertainty is maximumsince the AEMET distributes the probabilities equally. For Aragon, Catalonia, Levante and Balearic Islands the probabilities that this autumn is more humid, drier or maintain the expected rainfall for this date are exactly the same: a 33% probability for each scenario.
The Aemet prognosis coincides
The expectations marked by the State Meteorology Agency coincide with other forecasts such as those carried out by the professionals of eltiempo.es. At the beginning of the month it was raised since Autumn of 2025 in Spain would be warmer than normal with rains within the normal parameters for this time of year, although in much of the Peninsula Precipitation would be scarce.
Other forecasts, these without scientific support, such as famous Jorge Rey CabañuelasThey propose a peaceful fall, within the expected margins. For October, arrival of storms in the prolegomena of Hispanity Day, and does not rule out the formation of any Dana that affects the Mediterranean coast. At the end of November you could see the first snowfall in high levels of mountain systems, according to Rey.
How were the autumn of 2024 and 2023
As for temperatures, the average autumn between 1991 and 2020 is 14.4 degrees Celsius. The average rainfall in autumn of the same time period is 200 mm.
In autumn of 2023 an average temperature of 16.3 degrees Celsius was recorded, that is, 1.9 degrees more than those seen in the average of the previous 19 years until 2020. That made that The autumn of 2023 in the second warmer in the historical series. The fall of last year, the 2024, registered an average temperature of 15.5 degrees Celsius, that is, 1.1 degrees more than the average. In this way, the fall of 2024 was the most warm sixth of the historical series.
With respect to the rains, the autumn of 2023 recorded rainfall worth 243.6 mm, which exceeded 121% the average registered between 1991 and 2020. The average rainfall of the autumn last year was 236.5 mm, 118% more of the value of the average. While the September 2023 and 2024 were wet, October last year was the rainiest in the historical series: on the 29th of that month in 2024 there was the fateful Dana of Valencia. November 2024, by the way, it was the second driest of the 21st century.
It will be a matter of waiting for a few weeks to see what they hold September, October and November 2025 As for temperatures and rainfall.