Spain will experience a complete meteorological transition in the coming days. After the latest rains on Thursday in the Mediterranean and the Strait, the environment will stabilize with cold and frosty mornings. However, starting this weekend the arrival of a atlantic storm will change the scenario: night temperatures will rise sharply and a episode of intense and continuous rains. According to forecasts, this rainfall could last until Wednesday for much of the country, with a special impact on Andalusia and Extremadurawhere some scenarios contemplate accumulated values higher than those 150 l/m².
During this Thursday there are still registrations locally heavy or very heavy rainfall in parts of the southeast of the peninsula, the Strait area and the Canary Islands. Throughout the afternoon, the rains will tend to move to the northeast and the Balearic Islands where they may be locally strong in coastal areas, although in other points they will be weaker. They are also expected snowfall above 1,800 meters.
The night atmosphere will continue to be cold. According to the spokesman for the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET)Rubén del Campo, frosts will occur in the interior of the northern half of the peninsula, with special intensity in mountain areas and the northern plateau. Cities such as Burgos, León or Zamora will register minimum values of between -3 and -4 °C, although the maximum values will begin an upward path to adjust to the usual values of the time.
On Friday the meteorological stability in most of the country. Rainfall is only expected at the end of the afternoon in Galicia, nearby areas of Asturias and the west of Castilla y León, and the mountainous Canary Islands. Regarding temperatures, the maximums will rise across the boardreaching between 15 and 18 °C in the interior and exceeding 20 °C in the Mediterranean and the Guadiana and Guadalquivir valleys, where they could reach 25 °C.
Change of pattern on Saturday: goodbye to the night cold
Starting Saturday, the atmospheric pattern will change noticeably. The approach of an Atlantic storm will channel temperate winds from the south that will cause a sharp thermal rise at night, so the frosts will disappear in most of the Peninsula, except in high mountain areas. In the north of the peninsula, the minimum temperatures will rise up to 8 °C compared to Friday’s values. The maximum temperatures will also rise in the south, although they will fall in the northeast.
The rains will continue to be restricted mainly to Galicia and adjacent areas, with the possibility of extending with less certainty towards the Cantabrian Sea and Castilla y León.
An atmospheric river will impact the west starting Sunday
The final change will occur between Sunday and the beginning of next week. According to the analysis of Meteoredthe storm will advance towards the Peninsula thanks to the withdrawal of the high pressure blockade. Despite there being a margin of uncertainty in its exact trajectory, the models indicate that the storm will tend to go deeper at relatively low latitudes.
This shift will drive an important subtropical moisture river which, added to the higher than normal Atlantic temperatures, will significantly reinforce those accumulated in the Canary Islands and the Atlantic slope.
As highlighted by Meteored, between Monday and Wednesday the southwest winds (the traditional open winds) very long maritime route. This pattern will favor abundant rains in Galicia, the Central System, the southern face of the Pyrenees and the Grazalema-Strecho area.
Accumulated of more than 150 l/m² in Extremadura and Andalusia
Both the AEMET spokesperson’s prediction and the Meteored updates coincide in placing Extremadura and Andalusia among the communities most affected by the storm:
In the case of Extremadura, Meteored warns that it is still early to finalize the final figures, although some scenarios in the European model point to very significant amounts.. From the meteorological portal they indicate that in the mountains of the north of Cáceres could accumulate between 150 and 200 l/m²and even exceed these figures in the sectors most exposed to the southwest due to the orographic effect. The planned succession of fronts would favor these records.
Given this scenario, Meteored recommends paying attention to possible increases in flow and flooding of rivers and gorgesas well as the dragging of ashes in recently burned areas. Likewise, they point out that in the north of Cáceres and in the Extremaduran sector of the Montes de Toledo could be exceeded 100 l/m² during the first half of next week. They could also register significant quantities in the southern end of Badajozalthough in the center of the province the rains will be scarcer due to the Sierra Morena foehn effect.
In Andalusiathe European model forecasts analyzed by Meteored point to more than 100 l/m² in large areas of Huelva, the northern mountains of Seville, the mountains of Córdoba and the surroundings of Grazalemawithout ruling out specific maximums greater than 150 l/m². On the contrary, towards the east of Andalusia the precipitation will lose intensity, and may be non-existent in parts of Almería.
For its part, AEMET’s prediction also points to an episode of significant rain starting on Sunday. Its spokesman, Rubén del Campo, has specified that on Sunday the rains will initially be concentrated in the west of the peninsula. Looking ahead to Monday, the storm will get closer to the Peninsula, so the most likely scenario contemplates that the rainfall will extend to most of the national territory (except the Cantabrian and Mediterranean areas).
Del Campo has stressed that these rains “could be strong and persistent in areas of Galicia, northern Extremadura, southern Castilla y León, northern Community of Madrid and western Andalusia, with significant accumulations especially starting Monday”, an episode of instability that will continue during the following days.