As the World Meteorological Organization ())) The El Niño phenomenon is already a reality and will intensify until it becomes a very strong episode in the coming months, increasing the risk of floods, droughts and extreme heat in different parts of the planet. Forecasts show a near 100% probability that the phenomenon will persist until February 2027, an unprecedented level of certainty in the agency’s updates.
The exceptionally warm waters of the tropical Pacific are fueling the phenomenon, which is expected to continue strengthening until reaching its maximum intensity towards the end of this year 2026, although its climatic repercussions will continue well into next year. An event of this magnitude can cause significant changes in precipitation and temperature patterns and atmospheric circulation, with potential consequences for agriculture, health, energy, water resources and disaster management.
“El Niño is acquiring an extraordinary magnitude before our eyes,” says the ((LINK:EXTERNAL” target=”_blank”>https://www.un.org/sg/es”> of the UN, António Guterres. Given rising sea surface temperatures and the risk of extreme weather events, Guterres says the race is now between increasing risks and the ability to act against the threat. ((LINK:EXTERNAL|||https://news.un.org/es/news/topic/climate-change”>)) and protect people.
For her part, the Secretary General of the WMO, Celeste Saulo, warns that the phenomenon has the potential to deal “a huge blow” to communities and economies around the world. “We are already seeing disruption and devastation caused by droughts and floods and we are convinced that these impacts will increase as El Niño intensifies,” he says.
An exceptionally warm Pacific
One of the reasons scientists are certain that El Niño will be especially harsh is found in the temperatures recorded both on the surface and below the waters of the tropical Pacific. In the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, considered the heart of El Niño, sea surface temperatures are well above average and continuing to rise.
The warming is even more pronounced below the ocean surface. In some areas, temperatures were more than 8°C above average during July and early August. The combination of these ocean signals with the changes observed in the atmosphere and the coincidence between different international prediction systems explain why the World Meteorological Organization considers that El Niño will persist, at least, until the first months of 2027.
The effects are not the same everywhere
The WMO emphasizes that the intensity of El Niño does not alone determine the severity of its consequences. The effects change depending on location and time of year and can be strengthened, weakened or modified by other climatic factors in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. For this reason, regional and national forecasts will be essential to determine which territories face the greatest risks.
In autumn, models indicate a greater probability of above-normal temperatures in virtually all land areas, accompanied by precipitation patterns characteristic of a strong El Niño episode. These alterations can have repercussions on sectors that are especially sensitive to the climate and increase the need to anticipate possible emergencies.
Given the exceptional intensity predicted, the WMO and national meteorological and hydrological services are strengthening their preparations and early warning systems. Saulo points out that “never before, in the organization’s 50-year history, had a mobilization of this magnitude been launched together with national services to respond to an El Niño episode.”
Having reliable forecasts allows governments, humanitarian agencies, companies and communities time to anticipate possible impacts, from preparing health systems and managing water reserves to protecting crops or evacuating populations in the face of specific threats. The World Meteorological Organization assures that it will continue to update its forecasts as the phenomenon evolves, while national meteorological services will continue to be the main source of official alerts and specific information for each territory.