Banten, Indonesia – All signs point to a record-breaking El Niño this year, which experts say could lead to a severe drought in Asia and other extreme weather events around the world, threatening the food security of millions of people.
El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle of warming ocean temperatures, but this year’s is expected to reach new extremes of drought, heat waves, floods and other climate-related disruptions in South America, Africa and Asia.
Southeast Asia is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate. It is already affected by an energy crisis triggered by the war in Iran. El Niño is fueling wildfires on agricultural land, depleting water supplies in major cities and hurting fish catches in the region.
Asian governments, which have dipped into their financial reserves to mitigate the indirect effects of war — such as rising energy costs and shortages in fertilizer supplies — are less able to cope with this year’s intensifying El Niño, which is expected to reach its peak by December.
The phenomenon could amplify other crises in Southeast Asia, according to Paul Teng of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “El Niño is just aggravating all the other problems we see,” he said.
Extreme El Niño may threaten global food security
During El Niño years, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are warmer than usual. This occurs every few years and often disrupts global weather patterns.
This year, seas are already warmer than average, with the world’s oceans hitting new temperature records in August as the climate warms, said Kareff Rafisura, head of the Disaster Risk Reduction Division at the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.
This intensifying El Niño could be the “strongest in living memory,” according to the UK’s national weather and climate service. Similarly, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicated that there is a 69% probability that this will be the strongest El Niño on record since records began in 1950.
The impact of El Niño will be felt differently depending on the region, but it is expected to put food security at risk around the world. It could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, according to the United Nations World Food Programme.
The problem will be most severe in parts of Central America and southern Africa, with significant effects also expected in eastern Africa and south and southeast Asia, the food agency warned.
El Niño is already hitting parts of Asia
In Southeast Asia, wildfires are ravaging forests and peatlands in Indonesia, sending up plumes of toxic haze. The water level of a major reservoir that supplies the bustling capital, Jakarta – the world’s largest metropolis – is dropping inch by inch.
As the lake dries up, the ruins of one of 11 villages that had been flooded by the reservoir have emerged, while alarm grows over the need for alternative water sources for the city of 42 million people.
“I would have preferred not to move. There were a lot of opportunities to make a living here,” said Hussen, who uses only one name, as he transported people across the receding reservoir.
1 / 22 | 📷 This is how the planet burns: extreme heat and drought wreak havoc around the world. Extreme weather conditions have raised temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit in several countries, triggering health alerts for millions of people. – Vadim Ghirda
This is just the beginning, said Erma Yulihastin of the Indonesian Climate and Atmosphere Research Center, who warned that El Niño has only just begun its “super phase.”
Southeast Asian fishing grounds prepare for drought
Less rain and higher temperatures are putting pressure on Southeast Asian fishing grounds, an essential source of protein.
It’s a pressing problem along the Mekong, a river basin that runs through six nations and is being altered by mining and hydroelectric dam construction.
“It’s one blow after another. If the river doesn’t get a break, we’ll get to a point where it can’t sustain people like it always has,” said Zeb Hogan of the University of Nevada, Reno, who leads the Wonders of the Mekong research and conservation project.
The lower flows are especially hard on communities along the Mekong that rely on predictable water levels for fishing and agriculture, said Kongmeng Ly of the Mekong River Commission, an intergovernmental group of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam.
Rice and palm oil supplies at risk
Southeast Asia’s rainy season typically runs from June to October, when rainfall typically replenishes reservoirs, cools overheated cities and supplies water for irrigation ahead of the next planting season.
Drought could force farmers to delay planting, reduce acreage or switch crops entirely, the UN’s Rafisura said. “Agriculture is definitely on the front line,” he said.
Cuts to staple crops like rice and palm oil can have global impacts. The world’s top three rice exporters — India, Vietnam and Thailand — are among the nations most likely to be hit hard by El Niño this year.
North of the Thai capital, Bangkok, rice farmers like Boonmark Marksuuk, 55, already face difficult decisions. In addition to more expensive fuel and fertilizers due to the war, he spends most of his days pumping water into his rice fields because he no longer relies on rain.
El Niño also looms over Indonesia and Malaysia, suppliers of about 85% of the world’s palm oil, which is used in everything from cookies and lipstick to toothpaste and laundry detergent.
Malaysia’s prime minister has ordered his Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security to find ways to mitigate the impact of El Niño, which is expected to hit Malaysia the hardest in November.
In Indonesia, farmers rely on rain to dissolve fertilizers in the soil and avoid burning plants, explained Eddy Martono, president of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association.
“If it doesn’t rain, everyone will definitely stop fertilizing,” which will harm national production, he said.
Although the full economic impact of an extreme El Niño is difficult to calculate, losses from past events have reached trillions of dollars, according to HSBC’s Global Investment Research, which warns the numbers could be even higher this time.
Analysts at the investment bank Goldman Sachs estimate that this El Niño could raise global prices of food raw materials by more than 15%.
“What happens with agriculture really determines whether people stay below or just above the poverty line,” Rafisura said. “Going back to Southeast Asia, what happens here, the degree to which countries can protect production levels, will have global impacts.”
This story was translated from English by an AP editor with the help of a generative artificial intelligence tool.