Prepare for several years of even more extreme heat that will lead to the Land to more lethal conditionsincendiary and uncomfortable, according to the forecasts of two of the world’s main weather agencies.
There is an 80% chance that the planet gathers another annual temperature record in the next five years, and it is even more likely to exceed the international temperature threshold established ten years ago, according to a five -year forecast published Wednesday by the World Meteorological Organization and the Meteorological Office of United Kingdom.
“The increase in global average temperatures may sound abstract, but in real life it translates into a greater probability of extreme climate: more powerful hurricanes, more intense rainfall, droughts,” said Natalie Mahowald, a climatic scientist at Cornell University, which was not part of the calculations, but said they made sense. “Therefore, the increase in global average temperatures translates into more lost lives.”
With each tenth of degree that the planet is heated due to Climate change caused by man “we will experience more frequent and extreme phenomena —Particularly heat waves, but also droughts, floods, fires and hurricanes/typhoons reinforced by the human being, ”Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Climate Impact Research Institute in Email in email in Germanywho was not part of the investigation.
And for the first time there is a possibility, although it goes down, that before the decade ends, the annual temperature of the planet exceeds the objective of the Paris Climate Agreement To limit heating to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (° F) and reaches a more alarming increase 3.6 ° F since the mid -nineteenth century, the two agencies pointed out.
There is an 86% chance that in one of the next five years the 34.7 ° F and 70% that, as a whole, the five years that global milestone, according to the calculations are exceeded.
The projections were developed from more than 200 forecasts made with computer simulations by ten global scientists.
1/5 | Impressive images of the damage caused by the collapse of a glacier in Alaska. A glacier melted in the capital of Alaska, which caused the destruction of several houses. – Becks Bohrer
Ten years ago, the same teams estimated that there was a similar remote possibility, of about 1%, that one of the next few years exceeds that critical threshold of 34.7 ° F, something that happened last year. On this occasion, an increase of 35.6 ° F with respect to the pre -industrial brand enters the equation in a similar way, something that the head of long -term predictions of the United Kingdom’s weather office, Adam Scaife, and scientist Leon Hermanson described as “shocking”.
“It’s not something that nobody wants to see, but that’s what science tells us,” said Hermanson. Two degrees of heating is the secondary threshold, which is considered less likely to beat, established by the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Technically, although 2024 was 34.7 ° F warmer than pre -industrial times, the threshold of the climate agreement is for a period of 20 years, so it has not yet exceeded. Taking into account the last decade and predicting the following, The planet would probably now about 2.5 ° F warmer compared to the mid -nineteenth centurysaid Chris Hewitt, director of Climate Services of the World Meteorological Organization.
“With the forecast that the next five years will be, on average, 34.7 ° F warmer than pre -industrial levels, more people who will ever be at risk of severe heat wave Betts, head of climate impact research at the British weather office and professor at the University of Exeter.
1/8 | Damage in Peru due to the climate phenomenon the coastal child. The intense and unusual rains on the north coast of the Pacific are produced by the effect of high marine temperatures. (Photo / Commerce)
Ice in the Arctic “That will continue to heat 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world,” will melt and the sea level will rise faster, Hewitt added.
What tends to happen is that global temperatures increase as if they were climbing on a mechanical ladder, with temporary and natural climatic cycles of The child They act as jumps up or down on that ladder, the scientists explained. But lately, after each jump from El Niño, which increases the temperature, the planet does not cool much, if it does.
“Record temperatures immediately become the new normality,” said Rob Jackson, a climate scientist at Stanford University.