A commercial war is not good in the long term for the economy. But among the collateral effects of that initiated by Donald Trump with their tariffs there are a couple of them that, at least in the short term, will benefit the pocket of the citizen on foot: reduction of the price of fuels and the lowering of monthly fees of variable mortgages.
The fear of a deceleration of the economy – which more and more analysts fear that it can even become a recession – has knocked down the price of oil. The price of the barrel of Brent crude, the reference in Europe has sunk below $ 62 from the almost 75 when it was just before Trump announced his battery of tariffs in which he called “day of liberation.” The American bank Goldman Sachs has predicted that oil prices could fall even below $ 40 per barrel at the end of next year if the commercial war leads the world to a recession and the OPEC+ producers reverse the existing cuts in crude oil extraction.
However, the base scenario with which the bank works is that the “black gold” falls to $ 62 this December and $ 55 at the end of 2026, also below current prices.
Although both gasoline and diesel quote in their own market and that, therefore, its price is not determined exclusively by that of oil, it is also true that the oscillations of the raw material from which they are extracted influences its cost, although there are other factors such as taxes or logistics that also contribute to form it.
In any case, The translation of the fall in the price of oil to the fuels is never immediate or quickly. As explained at the time the National Markets and Competition Commission (CNMC) In a report, the price of gasoline and diesel usually oscillates with a dynamic that summarized that It goes up quickly, like a rocket, when oil does; But, nevertheless, it goes back much more when it goes down, like a pen. In addition, crude oil decrease is not usually completely moved to the price of fuels. During the first confinement by the Coronavirus, the crude collapsed 60%. However, fuels only receded 17%, according to data from the European Union Petroleum Bulletin.
At the moment, in fact, lOs fuels have come up again this week, although it is an almost discounted rise to coincide with the beginning of Holy Week, a period of great road mobility. Specifically, the average price of diesel liter has increased 0.069% this week compared to the previous one, to be at 1,440 euros, its first rise in six weeks, according to the EU oil bulletin. On the other hand, the average price of the liter of gasoline has once again more expensive with a 0.39% rebound with respect to the past, to rise to 1,517 euros.
Mortgages
In the case of Mortgagesthe fear of the slowdown of the activity since the prices are unbridled by the tariffs and that all this force the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut the interest rates more than expected – before the tariffs, two declines were discounted for this year – is pressing the Euribor down.
The indicator to which most mortgage loans in Spain are referred to in a monthly average in 2.21%, its lowest level of the last sixteen months. In annual terms, in addition, there is 1,494 points below the level that marked a year ago, which, thus closing the month, would significantly lower the mortgage quotas.
With this provisional average of the Euribor, a mortgage of 150,000 euros at 25 years with a differential of 1% and semiannual review would go from paying 891.39 euros to pay 8577.2 euros, which represents a monthly variation of -33.7 euros. In the event that the review is annual, it would go from paying 976.13 euros to pay 857.72 euros, which would mean a monthly variation of -118.4 euros or, which is the same, 1,416 euros per year.
Analysts do not rule out that the ECB makes more type cuts than expected to deal with possible damage to tariffs
The analysts of Ebury They consider that on the stage of current uncertainty and with the upward recession options, The interest rate cut by the ECB in April “is now more likely”and expect that if it is produced, the Euribor could enjoy new declines this month.
«The uncertainty associated with tariffs has significantly increased the downward risks for the economy in 2025, which the Central Bank will probably counteract with a new cut of 25 basic points of the type of deposit. New short -term type drops cannot be ruled outalthough the margin of maneuver is limited, especially by the German fiscal package, ”explains in the same sense as Ebury Ulrike Kastens, DWS senior economist.
Deutsche Bank Research He also considers that the ECB is likely to cut the types with the most decision than expected. According to a recent analysis of its chief economist, Robin Winkler, Chinese exports, blocked in the US by new tariffs, will redirect to Europe, increasing price competition for European manufacturers. In your opinion, it is likely that this excess imports have a Uninflationary effect, pressing down prices in the eurozone, which means that both monetary and prosecutor policy would have to give clear signs to counteract this dynamic.
The economists of Berenberg Bank They are still waiting for only a new cut of types of 0.25 percentage points in the second quarter, but do not rule out to deal with the possible damage that tariffs could make to the economy.