At least one Russian Su-34 bomber was destroyed and two others damaged in the Ukrainian attack on the Russian airfield at Morozovsk, some 265 kilometres from the border, last weekend, Ukrainian military intelligence says. Satellite photos confirm it suffered substantial damage in the attack, which also destroyed a warehouse with Russian aviation ammunition.
The bombing came shortly after another drone attack that damaged two Russian strategic bombers in the far north, 1,800 kilometres from Ukraine. The invaded country is thus trying, by all means at its disposal, to reduce the enemy’s superiority in aviation, a key factor in its recent progress on the battlefield and a cause of many deaths among Ukrainian civilians and soldiers.
Dozens of Su-34s take off from Russian bases every day to drop more than 100 massive guided aerial bombs. Although they are not very accurate, they can destroy almost any type of buildings and fortified positions, soldiers say, as Russia uses them to attack both Ukrainian positions on the battlefield and its cities and towns.
The bombs, which Russia has at its disposal in large numbers, weigh between 125 kilos and 3 tons and have been modified with a simple mechanism that directs them toward a target about 70 kilometers away. Because the bombs can travel long distances on their own, the planes almost never leave Russian skies and are out of range of almost all Ukrainian air defenses.
Ukraine has some modern systems, such as the Patriots. But they are very few, used to protect the country’s key cities, such as Kyiv, and are targets for Russian missiles. In February and early March, more than a dozen Russian bombers were shot down, but Russia also hit several Ukrainian air defence missile launchers.
In the absence of more air defences, attacks on Russian territory remain the only viable option to destroy as many Russian aircraft as possible by attacking dozens of airfields located not far from the border between the two countries.
The American ATACMS missile would be particularly suited to this task, says military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko. However, the United States continues to block the use of its missiles for fear of an “escalation”.
In June, dozens of Russian SU-34 bombers were stationed at the Malshevo airfield in the Voronezh region. The US administration explicitly rejected Ukraine’s request to attack them with ATACMS, writes David Axe for Forbes in an example of missed opportunities. “These restrictions on the use of Western weapons, arising from political considerations, contradict a sensible military strategy,” says prominent Ukrainian military analyst Mykola Bielieskov.
Ukraine is fighting against a much larger and better equipped opponent. Such a restriction further undermines its chances of repelling the invasion, and is based on a very fragile logic that does not take into account the possible disastrous effects of a Russian victory, stresses another expert, Olexiy Melnyk from the Razumkov Center. Despite all the threats, Russia never retaliates against Ukraine’s allies because it fears the response, he also stresses.
What could happen if the US lifted its ban was demonstrated by the stalling of the new Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region. Russia was able to move its forces into Ukraine without much difficulty despite Ukraine’s view of it as being in good faith. After the ban on attacks on Russian military targets right near the border was partially lifted, Ukraine quickly struck at Russian artillery and air defenses and halted its advances.
However, Ukraine remains reliant on its own means when it comes to attacking more distant targets. While Ukrainian drones are capable of hitting targets, which also include oil refineries, at a distance of up to 1,800 kilometres, Russia is taking steps to protect itself against them and moving aircraft to more distant bases. Moreover, while they are successful, the damage the drones can cause is still limited by the relatively small amount of explosives they carry.
The ATACMS missiles provided by the United States are much more powerful and faster, which makes both the damage they can cause and the probability of evading Russian air defenses much higher, Kovalenko stresses.
As Ukraine continues to urge the US to lift the ban, it is also developing production of its own missiles to reduce its dependence on the ally.
The Russian Neptune missile was the missile that sank the Russian flagship in the Black Sea, the “Moskva”, in 2022. Some analysts believe that its modification was used in the attack on an ammunition depot in Kursk last week.
“There will be more of our missiles,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said after deciding on Tuesday to allocate more funds for their production.