“An entire civilization will die tonight, never to return.” With these words I woke up donald trump this Tuesday a few hours before the ultimatum that he himself had set for Iran to accept an agreement expired. In his Truth Social publication, he stated that he did not want that ending, but warned that it was “most likely.” Despite the harshness of his words, the North American president left the door open to uncertainty and, faithful to his formula of misleading by mixing threats and hopes for an agreement, he did not rule out that “maybe something revolutionaryly wonderful could happen, WHO KNOWS?”, because now “we have a complete and total regime change,” he said, referring to the Iranian leadership, “where different, more intelligent and less radicalized minds prevail.” Hours later, in a change of tone, Trump himself celebrated the day as “a great day for world peace!” and assured that “Iran wants this to happen” and that “they are already fed up, like everyone else”, in reference to the ceasefire agreement reached in extremis.
The president announced at the last minute on social networks that, after holding talks with Pakistani authorities, he has decided to postpone for two weeks the attack on critical Iranian infrastructure that he had threatened to carry out if Tehran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz and that both parties have currently committed to a ceasefire during this period of time. Thus he turned the diplomatic efforts of recent weeks into a countdown, as if it were one of his television programs. In that same announcement, Trump added that the United States “will collaborate to decongest traffic in the Strait of Hormuz” and that his country will be present “to make sure everything goes well,” insisting that during these two weeks “there will be many positive initiatives” and that “the Golden Age of the Middle East” could even open.
Just a few hours before the end of the ultimatum, the US president assured that he was maintaining “intense negotiations” with Tehran for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, Pakistan Prime Minister Shebbaz Sharif He asked Trump to extend his ultimatum to Iran for two more weeks to allow the diplomatic efforts in which his country is involved to continue. “In order for diplomacy to continue on its course, I strongly request President Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks,” Sharif urged in a message on X, in which he also asked Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz during that same period as a “gesture of good will.”
This race against the clock also came with an important underlying problem, and that is Trump’s lack of credibility in the negotiations. In recent weeks, the North American leader has been linking deadlines, with extensions, threatening messages combined with approaches and confusing and contradictory signals in the midst of negotiations, which is why until now Iran has rejected the latest proposals for a temporary ceasefire, demanding broader and more permanent guarantees in the face of mistrust.
Tehran, which until now has called for a lasting peace that includes the resolution of other conflicts such as that in Lebanon, has two very limited options: give in under pressure that it considers humiliating or resist in the face of an unreliable interlocutor, who has turned unpredictability into a tool of pressure. However, Trump defended that the agreement It is “in a very advanced stage” and that Washington has “met and exceeded all military objectives”, which, according to him, opens the door to a “definitive” pact.
In fact, hours before yesterday he left the door open to a last-minute agreement, during the early hours of Tuesday, The US carried out an attack against the island of Kharg, the jewel of the Iranian economy and an enclave through which 90% of the Islamic Republic’s crude oil exports pass. This offensive, carried out in the early hours of Tuesday around 2:00 am, reached military objectives without ground intervention and without affecting the island’s oil infrastructure, according to information provided by two officials to The Washington Post. The operation confirmed that the North American government continues to manage this conflict with calculated ambiguity, hitting symbols of enormous strategic value, but without touching the energy heart of the region to prevent the markets from skyrocketing even more. In fact, after the announcement of the ceasefire, oil reacted with a sharp drop, falling below $100, a sign of immediate relief in the markets regarding the truce.
This Tuesday, not even the human cost of his operation seemed enough to alter the course of Trump’s plans, who at the time of going to press was continuing with his ultimatum. On Monday he assured that he was “not worried” about whether his threat crossed the limits of international law and could be interpreted as the prelude to war crimes. However, Hours later, he confirmed that he had agreed to “suspend the attacks” for two weeks while a negotiation process takes place that, according to the White House, will take place in Islamabad. and will even have the presence of the American vice president.
In the last hours, several international leaders tried to reduce tensions and accelerate diplomatic efforts before the deadline was met, but the American leader kept his threats against “infrastructures such as bridges and power plants” intact. The British government distanced itself from the US plans. Its prime minister, Keir Starmer, was against Washington using his country’s bases for any purpose that was not solely defensive. A sign that even among Washington’s closest allies, red lines are emerging about Trump’s strategy.
Reactions also came from the International Committee of the Red Cross and the Secretary General of the UNAntonio Guterres, who recalled that deliberate threats against essential civilian infrastructure “cannot be normalized in language or action.” Furthermore, yesterday, the UN Security Council rejected a resolution that urged countries to coordinate to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after Russia and China, permanent members, opposed, and Pakistan, a country that in this crisis has acted until now as a mediator in the conflict in the Middle East, abstained.
As yesterday’s day progressed, concern increased. At noon, The State Department urged US citizens located in Bahrain to seek shelter until further notice. According to information, there was a spike in Iranian attacks in the Gulf in the last hours before the deadline set by Trump. While Tehran asked young people to organize human chains around energy infrastructures to protect them, the spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry responded to Donald Trump’s threats by betting on “the culture, logic and faith of a civilized nation.”
In parallel, the content of the agreement that is now making its way between threats and truces is beginning to take shape: a ten-point plan presented by Tehran that includes the cessation of attacks not only on Iran, but also on its regional alliesthe withdrawal of US troops from the region and the lifting of economic sanctions. In exchange, Iran agrees to allow “safe passage” through the Strait of Hormuz during these two weeks, although under the control of its Armed Forces, a nuance that Trump has already made clear that he wants to eliminate in the future by demanding “the complete, immediate and safe opening” of this strategic route.
Trump himself, true to his style, summed up the moment with a mix of economic optimism and political calculation: “A lot of money will be made” and “we will load all kinds of supplies,” he said, painting a scenario in which Iranian reconstruction and regional stability could also become an opportunity. But on the ground, the truce remains fragile, limited in time and conditioned to negotiations that, once again, depend on an unstable balance between pressure, mistrust and strategic calculation.