Catalonia is experiencing moments of maximum uncertainty regarding its governabilitybecause after an election –those of last May 12– where the The independence movement lost its absolute majority in Parliament for the first timethe a priori sufficiently loose The victory of Salvador Illa’s PSC has fewer and fewer options of materializing in a change of Government; both for the automatic clock of the repeat electionwhich runs against it, as well as the indecision that its only potential partner, ERC, is experiencing, which without a leader and not recovered from successive electoral failures, concentrates all its efforts on measuring the temperature of its membership, who ultimately must validate an agreement that, on the other hand, is advanced – although far from closed – in the offices. With a recently returned Marta Rovira provisionally in charge, the Republicans have warned that If there is no agreement next week, the PSC will not be investedthus inviting Illa to give in on How “unique” should the new financing of Catalonia be? and, on the other hand, showing their urgent need to get rid of the problem. “May it be what God wants,” say sources close to ERC, “it is not the ideal scenario for us right now, but we are not afraid of the polls.”
According to the survey conducted by NC Report for LA RAZON, if this finally happens and The elections will be repeated on October 13ththe voters would return to reward the socialiststhat this time would get between 44 and 45 seats compared to the 42 they currently have, repeating without discussion as the first force in the hemicycle. The sum that Illa now seeks with ERC and the Commons, on the other hand, would lose the absolute majority that he does have at the moment, since the Republicanswho are fighting to avoid a repeat election for a reason, They would fall to fourth place and lose between four and five deputies.standing between 15 and 16; while Jéssica Albiach’s party, which has 6, would be left with half that. Even adding the two seats that Podemos would get, now without representation in the Parliament, would not reach in the best of cases the 68 necessary for the investiture. They would remain, therefore, at most, at 66.
Togetherwhich in the last election day could only celebrate being again the first independence forcecould add, according to the survey, one more deputy, distancing itself from ERC in its particular battle for the secessionist leadership but also seeing the PSC escape from above and remaining, ultimately, again without options to govern. According to the transfer of votes detailed by NC Report, the majority of the new votes that the post-Convergents would concentrate would come from the Republicans, who would also provide significant support to the PSC. Thus, the whole of the independence movement – without counting the far-right Aliança Catalana, which has been subjected to a “cordon sanitaire” this week in the Parliament – would lose a total of up to five deputies, reaching historic lows since Convergència i Unió abandoned “harmless” Catalanism to embark on the Procés with the logo of Junts pel Sí, first, and then, alone, only Junts. The CUP, which now has four deputies, would lose one; and only the formation of Sílvia Orriols, which would not enter any of the hypothetical formulas to form a government, would significantly improve its results, taking advantage of dissatisfied voters, especially from ERC and Junts, to rise to 100. five parliamentariansa remarkable result compared to the two chairs it currently has.
In the constitutionalist right-wing bloc, the People’s Party Alejandro Fernandez would be placed as third political force of the Catalan Parliament, but more due to the collapse of ERC than to a significant increase in parliamentary quota, since the 15 they currently have could be joined by one more or none, according to the survey. Voxfor its part, which in the last elections maintained the 11 seats with which it entered the Catalan Chamber in the 2021 elections, would now drop to 9 parliamentariansand the surprise would be given, after also surprisingly entering the European Parliament in the last European elections, by Se Acabó La Fiesta (SALF), the group of voters of the far-right agitator Alvise PerezThe party would obtain up to two deputies in Catalonia, whose votes would come mainly from dissatisfied voters of Ignacio Garriga’s party, and to a lesser extent from voters of the Popular Party.
The blockade remains in place
If the current deadlock seems to have a relatively logical solution in the leftist alliance of PSC, ERC and Comuns, with the result of new elections in Catalonia the situation would be much more complex. There would be no sums anywhere unless the two main parties in Catalan politics today, PSC and Junts, which would both grow, extended their pacts in the Congress of Deputies to the Parliament of Catalonia, presumably facilitating the governability of the region through an abstention, in this case of the post-Convergents. It could also be explored, although today it seems impossible, the incorporation of the CUP into the leftist bloc PSC-ERC-Comuns, although the anti-capitalists would demand in exchange measures that the socialists would not be willing to accept. PSC and PP, for their part, would fall seven seats short of an absolute majority.