The European elections will be held on June 9 and have become a new plebiscite on Pedro Sánchez and the direction he has taken with his concessions to the independence movement of the amnesty. In fact, in addition, the electoral contest will surely have the presence of Carles Puigdemont in the Lliures per Europa (Junts) candidacy, which can add greater capacity for mobilization to an event that is held every five years and is always around 45%. participation (except when it coincides with municipal and regional elections, as happened in 2019, and it shoots up to 60%). In any case, right now the prospects for the PSOE are not promising because it would obtain the second worst result in its history while the PP would win easily and, in addition, it would take away almost 700,000 votes.
This is reflected in the NC Report survey for LA RAZÓN, prepared with 1,000 interviews between January 12 and 18. Specifically, the PP would win the elections and would manage to take 25 of the 61 seats distributed throughout Spain and would garner 37.5% of the votes. That is, the popular party would practically double the results of 2019, when they remained at 13 MEPs and 20.2% of the votes. With these results, Alberto Núñez Feijóo would achieve a new victory at the national level after the general elections of July 2023 and, above all, he would also achieve his objective of winning over socialist voters dissatisfied with Sánchez for his concessions to separatism, something that allows him to expand the electoral base: specifically, the leader of the PP would take 688,000 votes from the PSOE (9.3%).
In addition, Feijóo would manage to retain 93.1% of the voters who chose the PP in 2019 and would take almost the entire Ciudadanos electorate: 87% and 2.3 million votes. Vox would also lose votes, although to a lesser extent: 14.7% and 205,000 ballots. The popular ones also lead the segment of new voters and would keep 36%, representing 648,000 voters.
On the other hand, the PSOE would lose strength and would lose three seats compared to 2019: in total, it would now achieve 18 and 28.3% of votes. Sánchez would manage to save the furniture, although he would record the second worst result in the history of the PSOE in a European election (it has only dropped below 20 seats once, in 2014), a playing field that the President of the Government likes because of his interest. of international projection. He would only manage to retain 77.8% of the voters from the 2019 elections, although he would attract 12% of Sumar (271,000 voters) and 19.1% of the new voters (344,000).
The European elections are the first national examination of Sánchez after the transfer of the amnesty, since the Galician or Basque elections have a regional scope. And, in this sense, due to the pace of parliamentary processing, they probably coincide with the application of the amnesty and possibly with the return of Carles Puigdemont to Spain, an element whose impact may further alter any forecast. In addition to the interest that Sánchez has always shown in the international arena and, therefore, in the European elections, there is also the fact that the better results and the more MEPs he brings to the socialist group, the more strength he will have to negotiate later on the distribution of positions. what will happen and how much influence it can have for Sánchez: above all, because of the pronouncements that Europe may make about the amnesty in the coming months.
In addition to the PP, Vox is the only party that has grown compared to the 2019 elections. Those of Santiago Abascal would go from four to six seats and from 6.2% of the votes to 10.4%. This growth of Vox would be fueled mainly by new voters, since it would collect 352,000 from that segment; although it would also garner around 200,000 votes from PP (204,000), Ciudadanos (188,000) and PSOE (177,000). With that 10.4% of votes, Vox would consolidate its voting percentage around those figures since in the general elections of July 2023 it remained at 12.39%.
To the left of the PSOE, on the other hand, an earthquake occurs: Yolanda Díaz’s debut is good because she manages to retain the six seats that Podemos won in 2019, although with a slightly lower percentage of the vote (it went from 10.1% to 9.1%). However, that will not prevent Irene Montero, Podemos candidate, from obtaining her seat and achieving 390,000 votes. In this sense, adding the votes of both parties, they would mean more support (seats and votes) than in 2019.
In addition to the four main national parties, nationalist and independence groups have a lot at stake because there are elections in the Basque Country and Catalonia. In fact, the Basque electoral event could take place coinciding with the European ones since the Lendakari Íñigo Urkullu would no longer have much more room to call them (until July). And the Catalan elections would be more or less half a year later, at the latest (there is room until February). Therefore, the results in both autonomies will also have a great impact on the national legislature because it will serve to examine, to a certain extent, whether the electorates value the actions of the parties since all of them are currently part of Pedro Sánchez’s investiture bloc ( ERC, Junts, Bildu and PNV).
In this sense, except for the PNV (Ceus), which would maintain its only seat, the rest of the parties lose European parliamentarians. ERC and Bildu compete in the elections in coalition under the acronym of Ahora Repúblicas and achieved three seats and 5.6% of votes in 2019, while now they would lose a parliamentarian and would remain at 3.3% of the vote (probably , both formations would be burdened by the decline of the Republicans who are coming off a very bad electoral cycle).
Lliures per Europa (Junts) would achieve two seats (one less than now) and would leave 320,000 votes (it would go from 4.5% of votes to 3%). However, everything can change both for the better and for the worse because the candidate is probably Puigdemont, a circumstance that can alter the situation in Catalonia and that will allow us to evaluate the attractiveness of the former president, who has changed his political strategy and has stopped aside the confrontation to open up to dialogue and negotiation with the Government. So much so that he has invested Sánchez, a circumstance that remains to be seen how his voters interpret him at a time when more radical pro-independence parties are beginning to make their way.
Ciudadanos, which has already shown its intention to run for the European elections, would be left without a seat, although it would garner around 92,000 votes. Furthermore, part of its space could be taken away by the new left-wing formation Izquierda Española, led by Guillermo del Valle and aspiring to run to amend the PSOE’s course of concessions to the separatists.
In any case, a notable element regarding the importance of the European elections will be the participation: if it reaches 60%, as the survey shows, the results will be very significant for the evolution of the legislature at the national level. If not, there will be debate about the actual impact. Furthermore, it should be remembered that in European elections there is a single constituency and, therefore, each seat is proportionally worth the same number of votes.