Satellite images have allowed us to observe a change in the rotation of the Iberian Peninsula. Beyond the recent study that showed that Spanish rural areas were turning blue. The precision of the data collected has made it possible to demonstrate that both Spain and Portugal are rotating about 6 millimeters per year, causing the union of the peninsula with North Africa in the future. All due to the collision of tectonic plates.
A study published on July 1, 2026 and directed by Asier Madarieta-Txurruka and carried out by researchers from the universities of the Basque CountryGranada and Palermo, has discovered that the Iberian Peninsula has notably changed the direction of its rotation, which Previously it did so when the Bay of Biscay opened. A fact caused by the convergence of the Eurasian and African plates.
This movement would show that both continents would be approaching between four and six millimeterswhich would cause, in the future, the union between the western Mediterranean area and northwest Africa. This would not only change the world map as we know it, but it would also mean the closure of the Mediterranean Seawhich would no longer have access to the Atlantic Ocean. Something that already happened 6 million years ago.
In 100 million years the Iberian Peninsula will join North Africa
The estimated period of time for this phenomenon to occur is 100 million years and by then the seismic and risk assessment maps would have to be updated. All due to what geologists know as the ‘Arch of Gibraltar’a geological region located in the Alboran Sea and in which the margins of the plate located under the western Mediterranean become more diffuse.
This arc is fundamental for the movement of the plates, since its crust is responsible for absorb deformations caused by the convergence and collision of the Eurasian and African plates, although only in the western area. Since the east is left without damping, the collision would be causing the change of rotation, this time clockwise and contrary to the rest of Europe.
According to the study data, the areas of the peninsula in which this movement would be most palpably noticed would be the areas bathed in or close to the Mediterranean. Firstly, the Pyrenees area, which is already acting as an additional buffer from the collision of both plates; and the Gulf of Cádiz, located near the Arch of Gibraltar. Likewise, outside the peninsula, it would also be affecting the Rif region, in Moroccocausing its local faults to be more sensitive to rotation changes.
The change in rotation of Spain and Portugal will also affect other countries
Beyond the direct consequences that this will bring for the Mediterranean area, this movement will also affect the surrounding countries. As the researchers explain, in other Mediterranean countries such as Türkiye could suffer more earthquakes or even increase the rock formations in their territories. All this in a period of time of 100 years in which the current speed would be maintained in 20 million, but in the next 50 years, it would multiply exponentially.
To carry out this study, the researchers have required a double analysis. First of all, they have made use of satellite geodesy approach (GNSS), which is based on continuous positioning, to be able to observe movements, no matter how minute they were. And, secondly, they used the data collected in the latest seismic movements and the tensions in the area.
However, the discovery of the change in rotation of the peninsula is not the only usefulness of this mode of analysis. As Asier explained, thanks to the data collected it will be possible identify more accurately the points at which a direct collision of plates. This fact will also allow locating active faults and hidden tectonic structures.