The “procés” continues to be more present in the rest of Spain than in Catalonia, according to the polls, and these same surveys confirm that there seems to be an atmosphere of change due to the expectations generated around the possibilities of the candidacy of former minister Salvador Illa. But this spirit of change can end in blockage if the necessary arrangements to shape an investiture do not fit. The figure of Carles Puigdemont can help Junts compete with ERC, but it seems difficult for him to form a pro-independence current with enough strength to add a majority that puts them in a position to demand the continuity of the “procés.”
Puigdemont is being examined in these elections because presenting himself as the most pro-independence candidate is no longer a guarantee of extraordinary mobilization. The wear and tear in the management of ERC and also in the leadership of Pere Aragonès plays in their favor, and that the two parties know that no matter how well Illa's list does, it will need the support of one of the sovereignist forces to obtain advance his investiture. It is striking that for a time the PSC has been trying to win over Junts to join them in pacts of deputations and even in the Barcelona City Council with the help of Xavier Trias, but the socialists have nothing to do in that way as long as Puigdemont is the who tightly controls the game.
Illa's victory is as insufficient as to reach the Generalitat she would need ERC to enter the government or form a tripartite, which would leave Junts all the opposition space. Now, repeating the election would also have a cost, especially for those who appear guilty in the eyes of public opinion. However, beyond the electoral calculations, it is interesting in the pre-electoral climate of opinion that the socialists go to the Basques and the Catalans with a certain fear of where the next “bomb” may come from.
The case of Isabel Díaz Ayuso's partner and her alleged crimes with the Treasury will continue to give rise to new chapters, but in the brain of the Moncloa marketing team, where the plots are organized to divert the focus of attention from uncomfortable issues for the socialists. , are aware that they have already stretched this issue almost completely, although they expect some more news in the coming days. But, equally, and playing against them, what they do not have at all under control is the narrative in which the UCO may be advancing in the “Koldo case” and its ramifications in socialist ministries and administrations. The news that may be known in the coming days or weeks has some on edge.
In this investigation, Moncloa suspects that there is “dangerous material” that could explode at any moment and affect Illa's political options in Catalonia, in addition to eroding the PSC in the Basque Country. The nationalists of the PNV have relativized the importance of the “Koldo case” and its impact on the regional campaign, both on its initials and on the PSC, and the polls insist on giving a technical tie to PNV and Bildu, which leaves the outcome in the hands of the PSE. They believe that it would have to be very bad for the PNV and Bildu coalition not to join, even though the campaign is subject to this destabilizing element.
Sánchez, along with former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, will once again take on this two campaigns. As they did in previous electoral contests, in a distribution of roles the two will try to focus the debate on the idea of reconciliation and the beginning of a new stage in Catalonia, in which management, social policies, education and They want health to be more important than other issues on which politics has revolved in the twelve years of sovereign government. And this is where the figure of Vice President Yolanda Díaz fades.
On other occasions cultivated by socialism, to the point of giving it pulpits so that it could monopolize part of the protagonism that corresponded to the PSOE, now Ferraz marks distance with Díaz's party and begins to consider it amortized in the political and electoral field. If before they considered her a necessary face to receive votes from the left that ran the risk of being left out of the system, currently, however, they see her as an option that the most it can do is to subtract votes from the left that do not come to count.
The tables have turned and if in the last legislature, Sánchez's motto was to pamper Yolanda Díaz, facing the misgivings of other ministers, now he orders the Socialist Cabinet not to dedicate a single second to joint strategies for mobilizing the left-wing electorate.
Starting with the Catalan elections, Yolanda Díaz's relevance will be even less. She will not be accompanied by the electoral results in these next elections and her programmatic offer is condemned to sleep the sleep of the dead for not having the necessary support to move it forward.