The electoral tracking of the Catalan campaign has already noted the impact of Pedro Sanchez's “resignation operation”, which began with the letter in which he announced that he was opening a period of reflection and the confirmation, five days later, that he was continuing in office. post. In recent hours, up to four seats have improved the expectations of former Health Minister Salvador Illa in the internal polls that reach the Catalan parties. This encourages the fear of the pro-independence acronyms that this “political maneuver” will break the Catalan campaign in favor of the PSC.
The days of the campaign will confirm whether this impact is maintained, increased or diluted. But the analysis is based on ERC and Junts that the socialist leader has designed this “resignation operation” to interfere in the campaign and “play dirty” in the examination at the polls on May 12. Sanchez needs to mobilize the socialist vote in the general elections, which does not usually vote in the regional elections, so that Illa's support is so broad as to veto the possibility of an independence majority.
ERC faces the Catalan elections with growing pessimism, while Junts continues to trust in former president Carles Puigdemont to beat Sánchez. But the amnesty, pending its approval in the Senate, and its ratification in Congress, is the rope that keeps them indirectly “tied” to the PSOE. The management of the result of the Catalan elections, the approval of the amnesty and the European campaign will coincide in time.
After the drama that Pedro Sánchez has given life to in recent days, just coinciding with the start of the Catalan campaign, the President of the Government will concentrate in Catalonia the profitability of the alleged plot of personal persecution in which non-affiliated media participate. and judges, a victimhood that already worked for him in the general elections. In the future, the PSOE believes that ERC may be an easier party to “tame” than Junts, but without ruling out any scenario because there are many questions that could change the direction of the balance.
What happens with the investigation of the “Koldo case” is in suspense and Sánchez's core is concerned about the defense chosen by commissioner Víctor de Aldama, because they fear that he will reach an agreement in the judicial process that involves “pulling the blanket.” . De Aldama, businessman and president of Zamora, is known for being the commissioner of the “Koldo case.”