It is July 23, 2023, at the stroke of midnight, and a euphoric Pedro Sánchez addresses the socialist troops that are gathering at the doors of the federal headquarters in Ferraz on election night. From the vertical superiority granted to him by being raised on the scaffolding – as a stage – of the great occasions, the acting president of the Government – and already aware of his chances of revalidating the office – harangues the masses with a: “There are more of us.” A cry of joy that anticipates a strategy of relaxing all the red lines marked to date and that involves placing Junts on its side of the “wall.” 54 days earlier, Sánchez himself, but with a contrite expression and from the institutionality of the Palacio de la Moncloa, called for an early election so that the blue tsunami that had devastated his territorial power on 28M would not also sweep away the central Government.
The defensive movement went well, but it anticipated what the imminent legislature would also be like. A continuous exercise in survival and weariness. The initial enthusiasm was calmed down and gave way to resignation a few days later, when the first goal had to be faced: the election of the Board of the Congress of Deputies, unblocked “in extremis”. The dependence of the pro-independence parties with which they were already accustomed to dealing in Moncloa was aggravated by the entry of a new actor into the equation, a disruptive Junts called to support the Government, when until now it had been the main factor of institutional destabilization. A year later, the Executive is fully aware, if it was not from the first moment, that its commitment to resist in power – to close the way to PP and Vox – means a progressive weakening. Until when? Until Sánchez decides to press the nuclear button.
The president is experiencing his moment of greatest weakness. Personally and politically. The judicial siege around his entourage, which has tightened so much that it even affects Sánchez himself, is compounded by the feeling of executive paralysis. Last Tuesday, on the anniversary of his sweet defeat on June 23, the Government scheduled a “macroplenum” with which it hoped to kick off the approval of the budget. The public accounts, as a safe-conduct to exhaust the mandate. However, this exercise in solvency ended in failure, sponsored by those who have influence and make it count. A Carles Puigdemont in injury time in Catalonia launched a warning in Madrid to remind that the legislature hangs by a thread and that thread is being pulled by Junts.
His party has dropped the spending ceiling and is forcing the Government to “restart” work and affection in September, when the future of the Generalitat is already clarified. Paradoxically, only Catalonia can save and bury Sánchez. It is an oasis in this arid panorama and the investiture of Salvador Illa, which must be unblocked this week, is clinging to Moncloa to try to culminate the course with a “success” that allows them to convey the image of continuity and support for their strategy of détente with the independence movement. Here, another paradox. At the moment when the sovereignty movement is most weakened – and its levels of social popularity are sinking to minimum levels – it has an unprecedented strength due to its influence on the future of institutional stability.
Since he was elected, more than eight months ago, Sánchez has been busy projecting an image of normality and legislative proactivity. The good economic data and executive management have been overshadowed by a single and controversial law, the amnesty law, which was agreed against the government’s narrative in order to tie Junts to governability. This law, which does not have a clear horizon in the judicial field – due to the controversy in its application – has generated a strong breach in the socialist ranks. If the impact is apparently limited, the PSOE has not sunk in the electoral cycles it has contested this year, it is because of the strategy of absorbing Sumar voters. Something that, in the medium term, means a condemnation to revalidate the coalition in future general elections.
Nor has the calendar helped. Precisely this succession of elections in which the PSOE has held its own has prevented the vectors that make up its arithmetic from feeling compelled to approve anything that would generate a negative electoral impact at the polls. The clearest example is that the Government was forced to renounce the 2024 Budget, given the certainty that ERC and Junts would not approve it in the middle of the campaign, and the outcome of Illa’s investiture – or a repeat election – will, in turn, depend on the process of the accounts for the next year.
With his inability to focus and make the most of his management, the controversies surrounding him, with the possibility of judicial indictment, have captured all the attention. The investigation into his wife and brother has placed Sánchez in a very delicate situation that goes beyond the purely personal, since the president himself faces his testimony as a witness before Judge Juan Carlos Peinado this week.
This situation has had a direct impact on Sánchez and his mandate. The President of the Government threatened to leave office after learning that proceedings had been opened against his wife and opened a five-day “period of reflection” that generated a seismic movement within his party. Until now, the continuity of the Secretary General was not in doubt, but the fact that he himself questioned whether it was “worth it” to continue made the PSOE aware of its excessive dependence on Sánchez’s hyper-leadership. The ranks remain tight, but not the unwavering support and in recent days doubts have also arisen in the party and among the partners about the management of the legal case against Begoña Gómez.