Paradox of this Sunday's elections: the headline of election night is, without a doubt, that the independence movement does not add up in Catalonia. ERC, the most punished by the polls, has against all odds, in its hands the valuable key to governability, to allow the investiture of Salvador Illa or help Carles Puigdemont to dispute it. The devilish arithmetic, without clear sums, and the proximity of the European elections, whose campaign will start on May 24, further hinder, if possible, the negotiation process for a very uncertain investiture, which will have a transcendental prologue: the 10 In June, at the latest, the Parliament will have to be constituted and its new Presidency elected, a key position to control parliamentary times and decide who qualifies first to be sworn in. Several political scientists analyze for LA RAZÓN the result of the elections and its interpretation in a national key.
Pedro Ivory
Member of the Political Communication Association (ACOP)
«The right-left axis returns to the Parliament»
The headline of the night is that the independence movement does not add up. Important news given what has happened in recent years. ERC takes the worst part. We know that internal families are complex and so are the balances and alliances, therefore, this will mean a time of great internal tension within the formation. Another interesting point has to do with the return to the old break lines. That is to say, in the past the political rupture that existed in Catalonia was the left-right axis. Subsequently, we moved to an axis logic of sovereign and non-sovereignist parties. If finally, ERC were inclined to support the tripartite with the commons, we would return again to the logic of the left-right axis. Until now, this was not the case. On the other hand, we are witnessing the disappearance of Ciudadanos. In this case, their entire vote is brought together by Alejandro Fernández's PP, which reaps spectacular results. We also observe that the left or center left regroups around the PSC, which also grabs votes from Ciudadanos. In this sense, those of Salvador Illa also fish in the ERC electorate, which is what would justify the nine-point growth of the PSC.
Manuel Mostaza
Director of Public Affairs at Atrevia
«A period of instability begins despite the result of Illa»
The first reading of this result in a national key is that it brings greater instability to Pedro Sánchez's executive. As happened with the Basques, Sánchez continues to boast about his allies in parliament. However, in Madrid they work in one way, but in their territories of origin they are incompatible. Therefore, the scenario is very complicated because while the PSC is in the opposition it has no problems in Madrid with Junts and ERC, but if the PSC aspires to the Government, then someone is going to be left out. A period of certain instability opens, curiously, when Illa has obtained a good result and has been able to capitalize on the crisis of the secessionists. The outcome of CKD is unmitigatedly poor. It is a party with a long tradition of internal struggles and internal fights, which creates a certain instability that does not benefit Sánchez at the national level. ERC has been one of Sánchez's clearest allies in recent years. On the other hand, I think Puigdemont's decision to run for office must be read in terms of negotiation with Sánchez. Finally, regarding Ciudadanos, these “start-up” parties are born and grow very quickly and sometimes disappear just as quickly. In fact, there is nothing left of that new policy from 10 years ago.
Javier Martín Merchan
Political scientist and professor at the Comillas Pontifical University
«ERC has taken its toll on its management in the Generalitat»
Regarding Carles Puigdemont's announcement, I consider that it seeks to test the internal balance of organic powers of the PSOE. Will Barcelona or Ferraz weigh more? In the end, Junts is necessary for any legislative initiative in Congress and this logic of blackmail is going to test the solidity of the PSOE internally. Regarding Aragonés' decision to leave political life, I consider that he opens a stage of internal fights to see which of the two two-headed souls – sovereignty or leftist – will be his successor. I also believe that ERC has taken its toll on its lack of experience at the head of the Generalitat due to its inexperience in managing major crises such as drought or education with the latest PISA report with the worst levels in years. Next, the obvious headline that the election night left us with is the great success of the PSC and Illa. However, what is important is the debacle of the independence movement, especially because, for the first time, the PSC comfortably wins seats and votes. Without a doubt, also, the extraordinary rise of the Popular Party, which is explained by the total decomposition of Ciudadanos, which is practically absorbed, and a well-constructed and managed leadership by Alejandro Fernández, which bears fruit. The struggle with Vox continues, since it does not lose support.