Carles Puigdemont He is so skillfully handling the cards that the President of the Government has given him, Pedro Sanchezwhich in just over a week since the preview of the Catalan elections By next May 12, it has already managed to clear things in a certain way in favor of Together the doubts about who would win today pulse within sovereignty. The plans of Moncloa in Catalonia, and with the candidacy of Salvador Illahave entered slippery terrain because the arithmetic victory of the PSC is always faced in all coalition fits with a very high price in Madrid for Sánchez himself: “Unaffordable”as some minister confesses.
In the circle of power of the head of the Executive they already manage as very possible the variable that ERC obtains fewer seats in these elections than in the 2021 elections, which they attribute to the worst image of Pere Aragones versus Puigdemont within the entire sovereigntist electorate. The Moncloa plot framework that places those of Junqueras within the framework of a pragmatic policy in Congress has turned him into a rejected politician by the majority of voters CUP and also of Together. While Puigdemont has a better perception among CUP voters and does not generate as much rejection in voters of CKD. Furthermore, Aragonès carries on his shoulders the bad grade that the management of your governmentboth among Junts and CUP voters.
Besides, Puigdemont has already managed to install the feeling that his return is possible with the help of the amnesty and because, furthermore, it is his wish – the gesture of resignation from the European candidacy– and this fuels again the expectation that a new sovereign coalition executivewhich, undoubtedly, is in its favor.
The distant majority of investiture
The data they have in Moncloa supports the PSC victory, with more votes and more seats, compared to the tie of 33 deputies with ERC that occurred in the last Catalan regional elections. But Sánchez's team is fully aware that this condition of first match of the elections is very far from guaranteeing an investiture majority and a Government chaired by the former minister Illa. For this to be possible, they need the numbers for an independence coalition Executive not to appear and for the PSC and ERC also reach some type of agreement transversal that ends the twelve years of sovereign government in Catalonia. And the latter would place those of ERC at a crossroads with a very difficult exit.
In that sense, since Esquerra They highlight that recovering the formula of tripartite demands them accept its failure as the main force of governmentsubmit in a subordinate manner to the PSC and give up self-determination. In discursive rhetoric, Aragonese is categorically denying the viability of a government pact with the PSC. But also for the PSC, and especially for the PSOE, it is a problem, since it leaves Junts out of the government of Catalonia and this is a threat to the continuity of the coalition Executive who presides Sanchez. In sum, the tripartiteas both parties recognize, is an option very little functional in political terms.
Beneath the official rhetoric with which the PSOE accompanies the first steps of this Catalan campaign, the scenarios they manage are strewn with alarm lights that bring the President of the Government closer to the end of the wire on which he has walked since he signed the investiture pact with ERC and Junts. Just the fact that those of Puigdemont can become again the hegemonic party in the sovereign space increases its capacity to iset your agenda of maximums about self-determination.
Fear that sovereignty will wake up
The demographic gurus close to Sánchez fear that the time remaining until the election date will reverse the trend towards the decline of sovereignty and make their majority in seats possible. However, with the data that the surveys give today, the two possible coalitions are those of a PSC-Junts Government and that of the aforementioned left tripartiteand the two options are full of costs for Sánchez in Madrid. Of course, the preferred option for the PSC is a minority executive but in Moncloa they are not able to measure the cost that the PSOE would pay in Spain and in governability if ERC and Junts went into opposition in the Catalan Parliament.
The alternative of sacrifice Illa for Junts to govern, if it is the second force with the most votes, it may seem surreal at the outset, but costs and benefits for each of the parts as well are being measured in the political-electoral projections that reach the president's office.
In short, all the paths to the outcome of the Catalan elections confirm that, even with an Illa victory or a historic government of the former minister, Sánchez will be weaker in Madrid to direct the destinies of the coalition he presides. We must not forget that on Moncloa's agenda there were elections in Catalonia after having secured some State's general budgets, or two years of legislature. And now the accounts don't work out even in the best of scenarios.