The electoralist strategy that the government is following since the return of summer, almost to the desperate and with constant ideological ads by surprise, does not seem to be paying fruit for Pedro Sánchez. According to the last survey of NC Report for reason, neither the PSOE nor add are getting overwhelming and the PP is stagnant, in the best sense of the word, as the irremediable winner of the elections.
If the elections are celebrated today, the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo It would obtain 34.4% of the votes and between 150 and 152 seats, according to the survey. The PSOE, on the other hand, would fall to 26.6% of the vote and achieve between 106 and 108 seats. In both cases, it is a difference of between 13 and 15 deputies with respect to the 23-J, up for the popular and the loss for the socialists.
Vox would undoubtedly be consolidated as a third political force thanks to huge growth: it would take 16.1% of the votes, which would result in between 53 and 55 deputies. In any fork scenario, the match of Santiago Abascal He would now be overcoming his best historical result, that of the 2019 electoral repetition, when he laid 52 deputies in Congress. It currently has 33, so it would be a flood between 20 or 22.
With these results, Feijóo could be invested president of the government in a comfortable way with the support of Abascal. Together, they would add 203 seats in the less optimistic forecast for them and would not need the support of other nationalist forces, such as the PNV or Junts, who do not marry Vox well and with which the PP does not go through its best moment (especially with the Basques).
The left, on the other hand, has no room for optimism. Adding, without counting Podemos, would now get 4.8% of the votes, which would translate into 7 or 8 seats. But attending separately, the purple party does not have better forecasts: they would obtain 4.6% and between 3 or 4 seats. This means that the coalition led by Yolanda Díaz It would lose between 23 and 24 seats compared to 23-J and Podemos would not even improve its results of the previous elections (it had 5 deputies).
Sangria of votes
Person to person, these percentages mean that PSOE and add 3.4 million votes with respect to 23-J. If we include Podemos, the coup would be lower but equally large: they would lose 2.2 million. And if you get to all leftist forces in Congress, The left would be left today in general elections to 2.3 million voters.
In percentage terms, the results of this October survey are very similar to those of September. There are hardly large variations between the blocks, and the movements are within them: the PP lowers 0.8 points, Vox rises 0.7 points; The PSOE rises 0.8 points and adding and we can go back 0.1 and 0.6 points.
This scenario is not good for the government, which since September has been taking the political focus to issues that, in theory, should have served to mobilize the leftist electorate. For example, with the Palestinian issue, with Sanchez announcing measures against Israel, presenting an embargo on weapons, encouraging protests against the return or putting an army ship available to the proportine flotilla. Also with the announcement to try to shield abortion in the Constitution, after the error of calculation of the PP by accepting a Vox initiative in the Madrid City Council.
But these measures do not fit. On the one hand, the left has criticized many of Sánchez’s impulses regarding Palestine. There is no unit. The embargo shows, which for the partners is insufficient and will be discussed in Congress when a peace process is already underway. But, on the other, because corruption scandals continue to leave the left voters to run to the polls.
According to NC Report survey, 11.5% of the PSOE voters would now go towards abstention. It is a very high figure and that must be added that 9.4% would vote to the PP. The only positive reading is that Sanchez can try to recover those demobilized with a strategy similar to that of 23-J, when the campaign was done while PP and Vox agreed in the autonomies.
Much of this socialist demobilization comes, as practically all the polls, from the female electorate. A logical explanation would be that the different corruption scandals that are whipping the party, in which controversies do not stop emerging around prostitution, are ballasting that vote of women who has traditionally helped the PSOE. That is why the government is announcing measures as it wants to abolish prostitution or include abortion in the Constitution. It does not have the necessary support for either, but it will generate an ideological debate in which it hopes to be well stopped and mobilize its own.
But much has to mobilize, because in the case of adding, 14.3% of the voters would refrain now. The coalition of Yolanda Díaz would only receive 30.7% of the votes she obtained in the previous elections. The highest transfer occurs towards Podemos, 29.9% of the voters of adding the 23-J would now take the purple ballot. If they were together, they would barely reach 60% loyalty, which remains a very low percentage. There the PSOE will have a problem, because it must make a difficult balance between stealing the games on their left to grow, but not drowning them too much not to be able to rely on them. Now, the socialists steal 19.8% of the vote to add.
Vox steals the PP
On the right, the PP seems to have touched the roof and only has a growth opportunity: to attract the popular voter again that now looks like Vox. Feijóo has already won the elections in 2023 and very few voters would refrain (only 2.5% say it would stay at home).
His only problem is that Abascal steals 10.1% of those who voted for the PP in the last generals. In votes, this are around 824,244. It is a very high figure and if it grows, Vox could steal from the PP about one million voters. To avoid this, Feijóo also has to do a balance there, to be attractive again for those most scaled voters to the right without losing sight of the center.
Out of Madrid
As for the nationalist formations, the most interesting thing happens in Catalonia. According to the survey, ERC A seat would be left along the way and would fall to the 6 deputies. Junts, on the other hand, remains in the seven it currently has. This means that within the battle that both formations maintain, the Republicans would be more worn out.
Perhaps that is why its leader, Oriol Junqueras, has imitated the strategy of both Jons As Podemos and has told Pedro Sánchez that he will not agree with anything with him, not even the budgets, if he does not meet everything promised before. And he has done it in two planes, in the Generalitat Catalan and in Congress, something that bothers the socialists, who prefer the negotiations separately. But in Catalonia the PSOE is already very strong (they are the constituencies that most deputies contribute) and none of the independence parties are interested in appearing that they are a support for the government.
However, these Catalan results are seized. We need to know what he will do Catalan Aliançaif you will be presented to general elections or not. The independence and xenophobic party is growing exorbitantly in the Autonomous Community and is doing it mainly at the expense of the formation of Carles Puigdemont. Although, for the moment, its leader, Sílvia Orriols, says that it will not be presented to the general elections, it is not trustworthy: he already said the same in the regional and now threatens in all the surveys with advancing the postconvergents.
This has also made Carles Puigdemont very nervous, who has been established in a policy of not everything with the government and ensures that he will not agree anything else with Pedro Sánchez until he meets the folders that are still pending, such as Catalan in the European Union or the assignment of migratory powers. His general secretary, Jordi Turull warned last September that Junts will make a “transcendent” decision before Christmas, threatening to break.
Out of Catalonia, PNV and Bildu They would keep the same seats and the surprise is given by BNG, which would end two deputies, one more than now. Thus, the Galician nationalists consolidate the growth that was already seen in the last regional of Galicia, where they locked themselves as a second force thanks to the collapse of the PSOE.