The first decision that the new PP regional governments will make, after Vox broke its coalition pacts, will be to commission flash polls to gauge the mood on the street and see how the change of script imposed by Santiago Abascal’s party is being perceived.
Also to take note of how the electorate breathes on the issue of migration. The intention of the PP governments is to “hold on as long as possible” and “try to govern based on specific agreements.” To do so, they will take advantage of the fact that they are the ones who hold the key to power, even if in a minority situation, to present initiatives and “put to the test” the representatives of Vox in their respective Parliaments. At this point, it would be a matter of applying the coalition program in its least ideological and controversial aspect, complying with what was agreed, mainly in the economic chapter. Although they already warn, only hours after the breakup was made official, that “we cannot guarantee in any case that we will not call elections.” Regional presidents and Génova agree on the official message that the priority is to give stability to the autonomous community, and that if this is achieved “there will be no elections.”
Too many “yeses” in the equation to rule out any scenario. Madrid also stresses that it is the regional presidents who have to make the decisions: “Génova will not be the one to tell a president whether or not he should call an election. We trust our barons and even more so after the lesson they have given in recent days.” Vox’s break with the PP in five regional governments represents a 180-degree turn on the political board that opens up opportunities for the populars, but also leaves important uncertainties on the path of Alberto Núñez Feijóo to finish configuring the alternative to Pedro Sánchez.
Moncloa is left without what has been its main shield until now, the use of these coalitions to identify the PP with Vox, and, in turn, with the extreme right. The PP has the opportunity to occupy a space between PSOE and Vox, with its advantages as an extraordinary prize in Congress to reach agreements with other parties and even dream, with more objective reasons, of the possibility of getting a motion of censure against Pedro Sánchez approved.
Although the landslide also carries risks on the right flank because, faced with the radicalisation of Vox, the PP needs to continue gaining ground in the centre but without losing it on the right in the new competition between Alvise and Abascal, and with the supervision and gratitude of Orbán, an ally of Moscow and Beijing. On the other hand, Vox faces the risk of a crisis in its national leadership with more than possible consequences in the functioning of the territorial structural minimums that are subject to a vertical and Caesarist command. At the first level of popular power they are convinced that the risk of Vox is that “it has begun the final phase towards its self-destruction.” Without nuances. “Everyone believes that it is a useless party for the government and for ousting Sánchez. With this movement it has shown itself to be a Caesarist party, leadership is one thing and caudillismo is another, and this accelerates its absolute irrelevance,” they sentence in one of the autonomous governments affected by Abascal’s breakup. Now, from theory, we must put it into practice, and this is what will be measured in the coming months.
The popular current, euphoric with the new situation, agrees in highlighting that the PP has thus installed itself in a position of centrality, “it can expand the base on both sides, without losing sight of the fact that those votes that are leaving Vox are doubting whether to go to Feijóo or Alvise.”
Hypothetical early elections would be legally possible in the five communities governed by the PP and Vox. This is stated in the statutes of autonomy of Castilla y León, the Valencian Community, Aragón, the Region of Murcia and Extremadura. In three of them, Castilla y León, Aragón and Extremadura, the only conditions that would prevent the calling of elections, and which are not met, are that a year had not passed since the previous dissolution of the Chamber or that a motion of censure had been called. Likewise, López Miras could agree to the dissolution of the Assembly and the early calling of elections, since, in addition to these conditions, the other two conditions established by its statute do not apply either, that there is less than a year left until the end of the Legislature and that a state electoral process has not been called. President Carlos Mazón, with the prior agreement of the Consell, could order by decree the dissolution of the Cortes as long as a motion of censure is not being processed. All five statutes allow for the presentation of motions of censure, but only the presidents of Castilla y León and Murcia could be the subject of one by Vox alone, since this formation has the required percentage of regional deputies there – in both cases 15 percent – while in the other three it does not reach the minimum required for this possibility.